The eventual enlargement of the European Union (EU) is faced with the unprecedented situation of all nine countries committed to membership having territorial disputes or disputes with neighboring states over the status of national minorities.
The successive enlargements of the European Economic Community – created by the 1957 Treaty of Rome between France, Italy, the Federal Republic of Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg – resulted from strategic decisions in which the territorial integrity, security and defense component did not assume importance. primordial.
This was the case with the entry of the United Kingdom, Ireland and Denmark in 1973, with the enlargements to Greece (1981), Portugal and Spain (1986), resulting from the fall of right-wing dictatorial regimes, or with the accession of Finland, Sweden and Austria to the European Union (established by the Maastricht Treaty in force since 1993) consummated in 1995.
All new states, with lesser or greater rigor, had met entry criteria that had a more precise definition, of a necessarily generic nature to provide political commitments, at the Copenhagen Summit in 1993.
The stability of democratic institutions, the rule of law, respect for human rights and protection of minorities have since been presented as essential for achieving accession. Among the Copenhagen criteria are economic vectors, such as the existence of a market economy and the ability to face competition and market forces.
Finally, the administrative and institutional capacity for the effective implementation of the community acquis, that is, the legal provisions and obligations that unite the Member States, is taken into account.
After communism
The disintegration of communist regimes in Europe, which occurred between 1989-1991, the reunification of Germany (1990) associated with the dissolution of the Soviet Union (1991), had, however, broader implications that conditioned the negotiations.
The articulation with NATO accession processes – initiated with the entry of Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic in March 1999 – immediately made the issue of security assume, for the first time, fundamental importance.
Thus, the declaration of the Helsinki Summit of December 1999, referring to the process of enlargement to a further 13 countries initiated two years earlier, “underlines the principle of peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and urges States to candidates to make every effort to resolve any outstanding border disputes and other related matters.
The enlargement of May 2004 consolidated the incorporation into a political-economic-military space alien to Sovietism and Moscow’s traditional pretensions to spheres of influence reserved for states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The importance of distance from Russia was also evident in the case of former states dependent on Moscow and members of the Warsaw Pact, such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.
Slovenia appeared as a first Balkan incorporation and an incentive for the stabilization of other entities emerging from the disintegration of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia between 1991 and 1992. While, still on the shores of the Mediterranean, Malta’s accession did not pose a problem, Athens’ demand for The incorporation of Cyprus forced a serious disruption in terms of respect for the criteria of territorial integrity.
The northeast of the island was under the control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, an entity established after the Turkish invasion in the summer of 1994 and recognized exclusively by Ankara.
The Turkish exception
Negotiations for the accession of Turkey, which had requested the opening of negotiations in 1987, signed a customs agreement in 1995 and obtained the status of candidate state in 1999, began, in turn, in October 2005. Few states shared, however, , London’s interest in reaching an agreement with Ankara and Recep Erdogan, who since 2003 had imposed himself as a strongman in a country with more than 80 million inhabitants – more populous than Germany – and who pursued policies that were often contrary to the EU democratic interests and values.
2016 was the year in which Angela Merkel negotiated an iniquitous EU agreement to contain the wave of emigrants and refugees in Turkey – especially Syrians, Iraqis, Kurds and Afghans – which in 2015 had triggered a migration crisis unprecedented since 1945 with 1.3 millions of asylum requests in European states.
It was also the year in which, with only 16 of the 35 negotiation chapters having been closed, Turkey’s accession process was, in fact, suspended indefinitely, with there not even being talks to review and extend the 1995 trade agreement.
The Russian threat
On the Balkan coast, with many apprehensions and restrictions, Romania and Bulgaria managed to join in 2007, with Croatia’s turn coming in 2013.
A succession of sovereign debt crises shook the eurozone from 2009 onwards, seriously affecting Portugal, Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland, followed by other emergencies such as Brexit – triggered by the British referendum in June 2016 and completed in January 2020 – and the covid-19 pandemic, but the strategic panorama was changing drastically without most European capitals taking any consequences.
In August 2008, Russia imposed itself militarily on Georgia to guarantee the secession of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The war in the Caucasus resolved in Moscow’s favor an impasse in conflicts frozen since the dissolution of the USSR and confirmed the aim of Vladimir Putin’s regime to recover and, as far as possible, expand control over former territories of Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union.
The rebellion fomented by Moscow in eastern Ukraine and the subsequent invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 led Russia to reinforce support for the Transnistrian separatists who have occupied a strip of Moldova bordering Ukraine since 1990.
Moscow’s support is essential to maintain this status quo which compromises Chisinau’s accession.
With Belarus in his orbit, Putin risked triggering a large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and, only then, did Berlin, Paris and Rome begin to effectively take into account the warnings from Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn against expansionism. Russian.
Political priorities
By opening accession negotiations in December 2023 with Ukraine and Moldova, also confirming Georgia’s candidate country status, the 27 clearly valued the political aspect. None of these states even remotely meets the conditions to join the European Union in the short term, even though the President of the Council, Charles Michel, points to 2030 as a viable accession date for Ukraine.
Kiev’s fate depends on the course of the war and Ukraine is the only state committed to membership with a significant economic and population size, exceeding 30 million inhabitants. The others have a reduced demographic weight, ranging from around 7 million in Serbia to just over 600 thousand inhabitants in Montenegro.
Apart from the expedited process of just 23 months of negotiations with Austria, Sweden and Finland, the process is, as a rule, lengthy.
Negotiations with the United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia and Malta took four years and two months and other processes varied between four years and five months (Greece) and six years and one month for the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Slovenia and Cyprus.
Six years and ten months were the time for Brussels’ negotiations with Spain, Bulgaria and Romania.
Portugal presented its candidacy in March 1977 and became a member in January 1986, in one of the longest processes only surpassed by Croatia, which took ten years and five months.
The political urgency of demonstrating support is not commensurate with the difficulty and slowness of technical negotiations.
Political support is justified by the current adherence of the governments of candidate states to the values of the European Union as defined in Article 2 of the Lisbon Treaty: “Respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, Rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of people belonging to minorities. These values are common to the Member States, in a society characterized by pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality. between men and women”.
Instability as a brand image
In countries with marked political instability, such as Georgia and North Macedonia (with a significant Albanian minority and tense relations with Bulgaria and Greece and in negotiations since March 2022), it is not certain that such support for European values or interest in integration or alignment with the 27 is consistent.
The EU-Western Balkans Summit declaration precisely highlights the need for “definitive, comprehensive and binding solutions to partners’ regional and bilateral disputes and issues rooted in the legacy of the past, in accordance with international law and established principles, including the Succession Issues Agreement [da Antiga República Federativa Socialista da Jugoslávia, celebrado em 2001]and pending cases relating to missing persons and war crimes.”
The final communiqué of the Brussels Summit, dated December 13, 2023, also refers to the imperative of guaranteeing “the rights and equal treatment of people belonging to minorities”.
Very far from these objectives, Bosnia-Herzegovina (candidate state since December 2022) is at risk of disintegration due to conflicts between the communities of Bosnian Muslims, Croatian Catholics and Serb Orthodox. The same situation occurs in Montenegro (in negotiations since June 2012) where antagonism with the Serbian minority is strong and in Albania (with negotiations opened in July 2022) which has a territorial dispute with Greece in the Ionian Sea, worsening a historic of ethnic and religious conflicts between the two countries.
After opening negotiations in June 2012, Serbia followed a path marked by conflicts with neighboring states and a pro-Russian alignment.
Kosovo, in turn, has not yet received a response to the candidacy request submitted in December 2022 and its unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia in February 2008 is not recognized by Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Cyprus and Spain.
Institutional reforms and expedients
Enlargements imply and condition institutional negotiations in the European Union that require revisions to the Treaties to be considered. Once again, issues such as the right of veto and qualified majorities, the number and powers of Commission members or consideration of the size of national representations in the European Parliament are under discussion among the 27.
Reinforced cooperation with a minimum of nine states – such as the defense area –, derogations – that of Denmark in internal affairs and justice policies –, partial and gradual integrations – like Romania in the Schengen Area – or postponing commitments as it does Sweden, which – despite meeting the criteria required for the mandatory adoption, but without a defined deadline, of the single currency – chooses not to join the euro in force in 20 of the 27 states, have until now been expedient solutions.
Everything is immediately pending on the elections for the European Parliament which, in a context of military conflicts in Europe and the Middle East and in anticipation of the November votes in the United States, will reconfigure the power relations in the European Union.
Polls on voting intentions in the elections taking place between the 6th and 9th of June, taking place in Portugal on the 9th, indicate a significant increase in votes for radical right and extreme right parties, namely in France, Germany and Austria.
If these trends are confirmed, much will have to be reviewed in terms of political perspectives for the enlargement of the European Union.
