Madeira heads to the elections on May 26th under the threat of ungovernability. The PSD continues to be the favorite to win, despite the internal protest and the wear and tear of Miguel Albuquerque due to the judicial operation that led to the fall of the regional government. The right-wing trend may benefit Albuquerque – not least because Paulo Cafôfo, also faced with divisions in the PS-M, is no longer the galvanizing candidate of 2019 -, but the social democratic leader will have difficulty obtaining the support of other parties.
The previous partners have been distancing themselves from Miguel Albuquerque, compromising possible post-election agreements. In the now dissolved parliament, the PSD had a majority with the CDS-PP (with whom it was in the executive and had formed a pre-election alliance in 2023) and the PAN. These two parties demanded Albuquerque’s resignation after the president of the government of Madeira was accused of corruption. The Liberal Initiative has also ruled out any understanding with the resigning president, who is running for a fourth term.
The weakness in generating understanding forced a change of strategy in the PSD-M’s alliance policy. In September, at the time of the last elections, the speech, although zigzagging, ended up being based on a rejection of Chega. Now, eight months later, Albuquerque has been opening the door to the radical right party, tearing up Luís Montenegro’s “no, no”: “At this moment there are no red lines, we cannot condition the will of the people a priori”, he stated in an interview with Lusa.
Chega, however, refuses any type of alliance, which could block governance in Madeira. “We are the only ones who have said that we want nothing to do with the PSD – neither before nor after the elections”, said the president of the regional structure, Miguel Castro, a promise that he has repeated on several occasions. Given the difficulty in generating consensus, the hope of the party that has governed Madeira since 1976 is to assert the argument of stability and avoid three elections in the space of a year.
If on the right the post-election scenario seems difficult, on the left the situation is no longer favorable. The elections caught the PS-M in a process of reorganization and Paulo Cafôfo did not have time to establish himself as an alternative to power.
The wear and tear of Albuquerque and the track record of the PS-M leader himself (who achieved the party’s best result in 2019, being two deputies behind the PSD) provide the prospect of a more competitive fight, especially since six months ago the socialists were more than 20 behind. percentage points from first place.
Even so, the president of the PS-M faces damage to his image and internal divisions, embodied by the Autonomia 24 movement, formed by the former deputy in the Assembly of the Republic Carlos Pereira to bring together discontent. Cafôfo’s intention to reconcile his candidacy for the Republic with that of the Regional Assembly was not well received by Madeirans, nor was his insistence on remaining simultaneously Secretary of State for Communities under António Costa and president of the PS-M when the scheduling of early elections was still unknown.
The electoral campaign begins this Sunday with signs of instability in sight. Madeira’s political future may remain undefined the day after the elections.
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