Tomorrow, a strong geomagnetic storm will hit Earth, according to NOAA. What is it and what can happen?

The center “Space Weather Prediction” (SWPC) of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just issued a warning alerting the population to a serious geomagnetic storm of category G4 that is expected to hit the Earth between today, May 10th, and Sunday, May 12th.

As the SWPC writes, “Geomagnetic storms are predicted to affect infrastructure in Earth orbit and on the Earth’s surfacepotentially disrupting communications, the electrical grid, navigation, radio and satellite operations.

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“Geomagnetic storms also Could trigger spectacular auroral displays on Earth. A severe geomagnetic storm includes the possibility of the aurora being seen as far south as Alabama and northern California.” Significant auroras are also expected to be observed in the latitudes of southern European countries.

What the satellites observed

“Up to five consecutive Earth-directed coronal mass ejections have been observed”a phenomenon that, according to the NOAA agency, is very unusual.

Technically, they are called Coronal Mass Ejections (CME). Its about solar plasma – gas ionized at very high temperatures (around million degrees centigrade) – which is violently ejected from the solar corona. This plasma, at supersonic speeds (between 250 and 3000 km/h)once ejected from the Sun, travels millions of kilometers in circumsolar space.

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Although CMEs are a well-known and not infrequent phenomenon, What makes this event exceptional is the fact that 5 EMCs are produced by the Sun consecutively in the space of a few hours heading towards Earth. The fastest CMEs take just 15 to 28 hours to reach Earth.

What makes this event exceptional is the fact that 5 CMEs produced by the Sun consecutively in a few hours are heading towards Earth. The fastest CMEs take just 15 to 28 hours to reach Earth.

Why CMEs are produced

The surface and atmosphere of the Sun, as well as all Sun-like stars, are completely permeated by intense magnetic fields. These magnetic fields, after being generated and intensified inside the Sun, rise to the surface where they give rise to a series of phenomena such as sunspots, spicules, eruptions, coronal arcs and coronal rain, and coronal mass ejections (EMC).

The internal mechanical energy of the Sun (related to your rotation) is partially converted into magnetic energyThe. This magnetic energy, once the field has emerged at the surface, is converted into thermal energy.

This conversion of magnetic energy into thermal energy is more effective the higher the atmosphere, reaching values ​​of millions of degrees in the corona (the highest layer of the solar atmosphere).

The magnetic fields of the atmospherewhich have a tubular structure, when they come into contact with each other (technically called magnetic reconnection) literally generate mega-short circuits with a sudden release of enormous amounts of thermal energy. These explosions that occur in the corona result in the emission of coronal plasma.

Why is this happening now?

The amount of magnetic fields generated by the Sun varies over time on a regular basis, with a period of about 11 years (also known as the eleven-year sunspot cycle).

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What happens is that, over an average of five and a half years, the amount of magnetic fields increases until reaching a maximum value (the so-called maximum of the solar cycle), while during the following five and a half years, approximately, the amount of magnetic fields decreases until it reaches a minimum value (the so-called minimum of the solar cycle).

The numbering of solar cycles (based on the number of spots) dates back to the mid-18th century. Solar cycle number 1 began around 1755. The current solar cycle – the 25th – began in late 2019 and early 2020.

At the beginning of this year, the Sun reached its maximum magnetic activity (the maximum of cycle 25). Thus, the solar atmosphere is rich in magnetic fields that are giving rise to numerous and frequent phenomena. It is at this time that the production of CME’s is more frequent.

What could happen on Earth in the next few hours

Although the Sun is a source of life for the Earth, it is also capable of completely destroying it. The sunalthough not a young star, is capable of becoming particularly dangerous due to its emission of X-rayssolar wind and coronal mass ejection.

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However, nature protects the Earth from these dangers. In fact, if atmospheric ozone protects the Earth from X-rays, its magnetic field protects it from the solar wind and CME.

The CMEbeing ionized gases, interact with the Earth’s magnetic field. Basically, The dipolar shape of Earth’s magnetic field captures plasma particles arriving from the Sun and makes them flow toward Earth’s magnetic poleprecisely along its magnetic field lines.

These particles, when interacting with the Earth’s ionosphere, give rise to the famous polar auroras (boreal and austral).

The video above shows the first CME observed by SOHO at 10:00 am WEST (Western European Time) on Wednesday.

However, When CMEs are particularly intense, they may be able to penetrate deeper into the Earth’s atmosphere toward the surface. It is for this reason that there is a scale for the intensity of CMEs, whose severity depends on speed, size and direction.

In the definition of “Space Weather Prediction”, a G4 storm affects

• Power Systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protection systems will erroneously disconnect key network resources.
• Other systems: induced currents affect prevention measures, HF radio propagation is sporadic, satellite navigation is degraded for hours, low frequency radio navigation is disturbed and the polar aurora drops below 45° geomagnetic latitude.

How the alert chain works

Our sentinel that continually observes the Sun is the satellite Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) of NASA. He is the one who gives the alert as soon as a CME is issued. Your onboard instrument CHIPPINGanalyzing the CME that has just been emitted by the Sun, assign it a category.

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The CME’s imminent arrival on Earth is then signaled by another satellite, DSCOVR.. This can signal the imminent arrival on Earth 15 to 60 minutes in advance. For tomorrow, a category 4 geomagnetic storm is predicted on a scale of 5which is expected to last until Sunday, May 12th.