The CNT/MDA poll released 1 day before the first round of the 2018 election presented the path that would be revealed the next day, when the polls opened. Today’s survey, the eve of the 2022 dispute, helps to decipher what tomorrow’s result could be. Check the analysis
The newest CNT/MDA poll for the Presidency of the Republic was released this Saturday morning (10/01). Four years ago, the institute also released a survey on the eve of the first round, on October 6, 2018. Note the comparison of numbers.
The valid votes for today’s poll are:
Lula (PT): 48.3%
Bolsonaro (PL): 39.7%
Cyrus (PDT): 4.9%
Tebet (MDB): 4.7%
Other candidates added together: less than 2%
The poll that Saturday 2018 showed the following result in valid votes:
Jair Bolsonaro: 42.6% (at the polls, he had 46.03%)
Fernando Haddad: 27.8% (at the polls, he had 29.28%)
Ciro Gomes: 11.5% (at the polls, he had 12.47%)
Geraldo Alckmin: 6.7% (at the polls, he had 4.76%)
In the poll on the eve of the 2018 election, the combined votes of João Amoêdo, Marina Silva, Álvaro Dias, Guilherme Boulos, Cabo Daciolo and Henrique Meirelles totaled 11.1%. When the polls opened on Sunday, all these candidates combined received 7.2% of the vote.
That poll also said that 90% of Haddad voters and 90% of Bolsonaro voters were ‘totally decided’ on the vote, while the percentage of Ciro voters decided was 67%.
In the 2022 poll, released today, 92% of Bolsonaro and Lula voters say they are completely decided. The vote certainty of Ciro’s voters is 64%.
In 2018, in the survey the day before, the biggest rejection was by Fernando Haddad. Now, the most rejected candidate is Jair Bolsonaro. Undecided were 6% in 2018 and today they are 4.3%, according to the CNT/MDA.
The numbers show that Bolsonaro was the candidate who most benefited from the so-called ‘useful vote’ in 2018. Most of the votes of Alckmin, Amoêdo, Marina, Meirelles and Daciolo migrated to him.
In the current scenario, Lula (47.6%) is less rejected than Bolsonaro (54.4%) and tends to benefit more from the useful vote. However, in 2022 there are fewer ‘useful votes’ up for grabs.
If Lula wins the largest share of the 36% of Ciro voters who say they are inclined to change their vote, as well as most of the insecure people who still vote for Tebet, the election could be defined in the first round. But, in addition, the PT will also need to inherit some portion of the 4.3% of the electorate that still doesn’t know who to vote for tomorrow.
Another determining factor will be the abstention, which was 20.33% in the first round of the 2018 election and, if it grows beyond this level, it could be decisive to take the dispute to the 2nd round, since the class voter lower social status (segment in which Lula is handily leading) is the one that most fails to turn up at the polls.
The comparison between the two CNT/MDA surveys, with their different particularities and contexts, helps to decipher the possibilities for tomorrow, but reinforces the understanding that this is a dispute that will be defined by details.
*Luis Soares is editor of Pragmatism
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