Accident or downed plane? What is known about Russian aircraft that crashed with 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war

The causes of the crash of the Russian military transport plane that crashed on Wednesday morning (24/1) with 65 Ukrainian prisoners in the Belgorod region, bordering Ukraine, are still unknown.

A video posted on social media shows the crash of a plane, followed by an explosion and a fireball near Yablonovo, 70 km northeast of the Russian city of Belgorod. around 11am local time.

The region’s governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, wrote on Telegram that everyone on board had died.

The Russian Defense Ministry accused Ukraine of shooting down the aircraft and called the crash an “act of barbarism and terrorism.”

According to the ministry, the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who would be taken to the border between the two countries for an exchange with Russians detained in Ukraine.

In addition to the prisoners, six crew members and three bodyguards were also on board.

For now, it has not been possible to independently verify any of the personal information of those on board.

Ukrainian sources told the BBC that they did not yet have precise information about the situation and were investigating what happened.

He also urged “the media and citizens to refrain from spreading unverified information.”

Military experts interviewed by the BBC said, based on the video, that the situation resembles the shooting down of a plane.

“The images are consistent with an aircraft being shot down,” says Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“An aircraft could be seen losing altitude before the fireball appeared.”

He adds that the plume of smoke seen in the sky “is consistent with an explosion.”

“There is a small trail leading from the explosion, which could be a missile trail.”

Christopher Petrov, a ground-based air defense expert at Janes, an open-source defense intelligence company, says the aircraft footage “indicates pre-impact damage.”

“Approximately one to two seconds before the accident, there appears to be a fire on board, with a small fragment of the aircraft detaching and descending independently, emanating from the forward section of the airplane.”

He adds that the cloud of smoke in the video “may suggest the use of a surface-to-air missile”, but states that it is not possible to definitively pinpoint the cause of the crash.

‘No more prisoner exchanges’

Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of Russia’s parliamentary defense committee, said a second plane carrying 80 Ukrainian prisoners was hijacked.

“Now we cannot talk about any other exchanges [de prisioneiros]”, Kartapolov told Russian television.

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Kremlin was aware of the accident but declined to elaborate.

Shortly after the accident was announced, an air alert was issued throughout Ukraine.

Belgorod, located about 40 km north of the border with Ukraine, has suffered dozens of casualties from air and drone strikes since the start of the war.

In December, 25 people were killed and 100 injured after an airstrike, although Ukraine insisted that only military infrastructure was hit and blamed Russian air defense forces.

Difficulties in determining what happened

Defense Analyst for the BBC’s Russian service, Pavel Aksenov points out that Russian Telegram channels claim that the IL-76 was shot down by Ukrainian air defense systems.

This theory could be confirmed with a video showing the missile’s trail or the actual moment of the plane’s impact.

“However, we have not seen any such video, and based on the available footage, it is difficult to say for sure what caused the plane to crash,” Aksenov points out.

He comments that it is possible to see in the video the plane descending towards the ground and, at some point, a large fragment breaks off and, probably later, flames erupt around the left wing.

This cannot be considered conclusive proof that the plane was shot down nor does it refute this version, says Aksenov.