Dollar – (Photo: ABrasil)
After changing signals in the first stage of business, the spot dollar operated in a slight fall throughout the afternoon of this Wednesday, 27th, amid the deepening of the decline in Treasuries rates and the weakening of the North American currency in relation to Latin American pairs of the real, especially the Mexican peso. In the morning, operators pointed to the new round of devaluation of iron ore, falling by more than 3% for the second day in a row, and the recomposition of defensive positions as inducing a specific increase in the dollar.
Strong data on the balance of formal jobs in Brazil in February released at 2pm did not have a relevant impact on the formation of the exchange rate, although they could, in theory, change expectations for the size of the total cycle of Selic rate cuts. In the Copom minutes, released on Tuesday, the Central Bank pointed out the tight labor market as one of the points to be observed when defining the pace of reduction in the basic rate.
Between the minimum of R$4.9720 and the maximum of R$4.9935, the spot dollar ended the session quoted at R$4.9793, down 0.07%. With investors already anticipating the rollover of positions at the turn of the month, the dollar futures contract for April had a robust turnover, above US$ 14 billion.
On Thursday, there will be a dispute over the formation of the last ptax rate for March, given the absence of business on the last working day of the month, due to the Good Friday holiday.
The foreign exchange manager at Treviso Corretora, Reginaldo Galhardo, states that major players maintain relevant defensive positions on the eve of the dispute over Ptax, which keeps the dollar close to R$5.00. He remembers that on Friday, when the markets will be closed, the consumer spending index (PCE) will be released in the USA and there will be a speech by the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell – events that could promote changes in expectations for the start of interest cuts in the USA.
“The tendency is for markets to adopt a defensive stance tomorrow. And the outlook for public accounts doesn’t help either, with the government already showing signs that it may change fiscal targets for the coming years”, says Galhardo.
In Brazil, the Ministry of Labor reported that the formal labor market registered a positive balance of 306,111 signed contracts in February, according to data from the General Register of Employed and Unemployed Persons (Caged), well above the median of Broadcast Projections estimates, of 232.5 thousand.
BS2 Treasury Manager, Felipe Ueda, recalls that continuous Pnad data will be released on Thursday, with the unemployment rate for the quarter ending in February – which gains even more relevance in light of the Copom minutes.
“The BC is very concerned about inflation in services. And the employment data from here should have a greater influence on future interest rates and the dollar itself”, says Ueda, highlighting that the currency may show more volatility tomorrow with the formation of Ptax. “I still don’t see the dollar above R$5.00, but there is also no room for optimism with the real, because there is still a lot of uncertainty in the fiscal area.”
