What happened
BC report with projections for the economy had repercussions. The inflation estimate in 2024 remained stable at 3.5%, and the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) rose from 1.7% to 1.9%, according to the Central Bank’s Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI). The BC still projects moderate family consumption and a resumption of investments this year.
IBGE figures showed a rise in unemployment. The unemployment rate rose from 7.6% to 7.8% in the December-February quarter, due to the increase in the number of people looking for work. The data was in line with expectations gathered in a Reuters survey, but is the weakest for quarters ending in February since 2015.
Investors also reacted to the Fed director’s speeches. Christopher Waller said yesterday (27) that the disappointing inflation figures confirm that the US central bank should postpone the interest rate cut. “This boosts the dollar, which gains from its peers and emerging currencies and those linked to commodities,” Guilherme Esquelbek, from Correparti Corretora, explained to Reuters.
Expectations for US inflation data continue. It is estimated that the consumption expenditure price index (PCE), which comes out tomorrow (29), rose 0.3% in February compared to the previous month and 2.8% in the last 12 months. For analysts, any upward surprise will be seen as another setback for bets on a US interest rate cut in June.
Ptax Training
Last session of the month tends to be more volatile due to Ptax. Ptax is an exchange rate calculated by the Central Bank that serves as a reference for the settlement of futures contracts. At the end of each month, financial agents usually try to direct it to levels that are more convenient for their positions, whether they are bought or sold in dollars.
