Podcast: Dollar rises and stock market falls after US economic activity data

Today (1), the financial market was eager for economic activity data from the United States. After the release of the index, there was considerable volatility in the dollar. The closing showed a firm rise in the US currency against the real, with the new data leaving doubts about the next steps of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the US central bank.

Amid this information, the Ibovespa registered a drop of 0.87%, closing below 127 thousand points today.

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US industrial activity exceeds expectations

The US industrial activity index showed a significant jump, going from 47.8 in February to 50.3 in March. This figure was well above the 48.5 expected by economists, indicating economic expansion and marking the first time that the indicator has surpassed the 50 mark since 2022. These numbers ended up diverting attention from the news about inflation, which was within expectations. by the market.

Fed signals caution regarding inflation

The Fed’s recent statements have added more uncertainty to the markets. The American central bank stated that it does not consider it appropriate to cut interest rates until it is confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path. This raised doubts about the possibility of monetary easing starting as early as June.

Brazilian fiscal scenario worries

At the national level, the Treasury’s fiscal projections indicate that the revenue measures implemented by the government will be insufficient to reach the 2025 fiscal target. An additional effort equivalent to 1% of GDP would be required, which would represent extra revenue in excess of 123 billion of reais to achieve the expected surplus. Otherwise, we could face a revenue deficit.

Profit of non-financial companies grows, but real performance is worrying

A study by Elos Ayta Consultoria revealed that the profit of non-financial companies grew 1.98% and revenue increased 2.67% in the last quarter of 2023. However, adjusted for inflation, which was 4.62% in the same period , these numbers show a real drop in results. Despite this, there was an increase in operational efficiency, with gross profit growing 6.78% due to the reduction in the costs of products sold.