I’ve been wanting to make this comparison for years. Today was the day. As a consumer, one of my biggest challenges is finding an effective formula to save on fuel. It’s difficult because prices change every week (or several times a week), each station sets its own prices and the variation is huge between the North and South and the coast and interior of the country.
But, as you know, I have a lot of fun with these “investigations” and I will take the risk of starting another league table, after creating the monthly TOP 10 for electricity and gas. So, every week I will make a comparison with the real prices of the various fuel brands to get an idea of how each brand constructs its prices. I’ve already learned several interesting things.
My criteria are simple:
- Simple fuels (gasoline and diesel). These fuels are supposedly exactly the same in all brands (white and premium). So I’m comparing the same product.
- The same posts. Since it was impossible to compare all gas stations in the country, I chose – after analyzing the behavior of several dozen gas stations over several weeks – a gas station that I consider representative of each brand. They are all in the same district (Lisbon) and in the same municipality. I will not disclose them so that there is no attempt by someone to try to falsify the results. And if I notice strange behavior, I will change the position.
- DGEG prices. I use as a basis for this “study” the prices updated on the “Fuel prices” page of the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology. Station owners are required by law to update prices on the page whenever they make changes. I compare prices on the same dates.
Prices for the week of April 22nd to 28th
I’ve been comparing prices at the same gas stations (without them knowing) since the end of March.
The brands I am comparing are:
- GALP
- BP
- SHELL
- CEPSA
- REPSOL
- PRIO
- oz
- Intermarché
- Auchan
This week the real prices I checked (after the rises and falls predicted for Monday) were as follows.
Given these prices, my analysis is as follows:
According to ERSE (Efficient Price) forecast, diesel prices should fall by 2.3 cents this week (from €1,667 to €1,644).
GALP, Repsol and SHELL fell more than expected (-2.5 cents).
BP, Cepsa and Intermarché dropped 2 cents.
Auchan dropped by just 1 cent and Oz dropped by 1.5 cents per liter.
There is an interesting case: Prio has not changed prices for 4 weeks. It always has €1,614, regardless of forecasts of increases and decreases based on international markets. For this example, you are beginning to understand that news about rises or falls (as I have been telling you for years) are just trends. You just need to know the prices at gas stations in your location and the day on which prices change (if they do).
Finally, the fact that a company raises or lowers prices this week is somewhat irrelevant, as what counts is the previous price. The difference between BP and Intermarché (after both cuts) remains 11.5 cents per liter.
IMPORTANT NOTE: In the case of simple fuels, if the consumer has a discount of 10 cents per liter with cards or coupons, they all end up having more or less the same price. Without discounts (those who don’t have them or don’t care) are wasting hundreds of euros a year by purchasing the most expensive brands.
With regard to gasoline prices, ERSE estimates that prices should drop by 1.7 cents per liter.
Only Auchan and Oz dropped more than expected. They dropped 2 cents.
Cepsa and Shell dropped 1.5 cents.
BP, Galp, Repsol, Prio and Intermarché dropped just 1 cent.
In the case of Gasoline, Prio – at the same station – has a different strategy: it changes the price every week, albeit very slightly.
In summary, these are my first conclusions:
Galp, BP and Shell are always the most expensive brands. The difference is usually around 10 or 11 cents compared to the cheapest ones.
The cheapest brands, both for diesel and gasoline, are the Auchan and Intermarché hypermarkets, and Cepsa. Prio has a different strategy price in relation to their additive, which is even cheaper than simple fuel. It can make a difference in these results.
Repsol and Oz follow “normal” ERSE prices.
Price evolution week by week
In these two graphs you can monitor the price behavior of each brand in relation to the competition. As you can see, the big ones mark each other up heavily, well above the average price.
The cheapest brands do exactly the same thing, with some variations in tenths, but with much lower values.
I can now see that there are 3 championships that I will follow with the utmost interest.
There are the big 3 (like in football): Galp, BP and Shell which are always the most expensive.
There are 3 brands in the middle of the table: Prio, Repsol and Oz, with “normal” prices.
There are 3 much cheaper brands: Auchan, Intermarché and Cepsa.
There are, obviously, more brands, but I will follow these in this first phase because I think they are the most relevant.
I remind you that my “experiences” are not sponsored by anyone and I am completely exempt in these analyses. With this information, do whatever you want. What I would like is that reading these articles encourages you to do your own math to manage your money intelligently. In all areas. In fuels too.
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