Gold appreciated by 21.13% in the first quarter of this year.
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The quotation of gold this week broke a new historical record and surpassed $2,300 (R$ 11,538) per ounce. The metal is considered a “safe haven” by investors as it is a safe haven asset in times of economic, political and/or geopolitical uncertainty. O Earth consulted investment experts to find out if it’s time to invest.
O Gold was one of the most prominent financial applications in the financial market in the first quarter of 2024. During the period, the metal appreciated by 21.13%, while investors await an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank of the United States. The American interest rate is at its highest level in more than 20 years, between 5.25% and 5.50%.
“O gold is a safe asset when there is economic, political and geopolitical uncertainty. When investors are concerned about stability in the stock market, currency market or bond market, they often turn to gold as a way to protect themselves against potential losses. […] For investors who are truly concerned about this scenario, having a position in gold is something that could make sense”, says Raony Rossetti, CEO of Melver, to Earth.
Gustavo Bertotti, economist at Messem Investimentos, states that, just like investing in dollars, a diversification of investments in gold is also healthy, as protect your wallet. In addition to the United States interest rate, the expert’s argument is that geopolitical risks are one of the main catalysts for the rise in gold. He mentions the war in Middle East and the war between Russia It is Ukraine.
“When there are tensions, investors seek protection in gold. Today, of course, there is no way to say whether gold will rise even further or not. It rose well, let’s say, almost 10% in the last 30 days, but very much on top of the tension, that is, if the tension, the geopolitical risk increases, the tendency is for it to continue an upward trend”, says Bertotti.
Rodrigo Sgavioli, Head of Research Allocation at XP, views the gold scenario with a little more caution. Although he still recommends, in scenarios of geopolitical tension, investing 1% to 3% of the portfolio in gold, he reminds one important fact: gold does not pay dividends, does not pay income and lives from these very specific shocks at times. The expert also has a different reading about the record value that the metal reached.
“When we have a very large increase in geopolitical risks, we tend to have a positive behavior in the price of gold. At this moment, as there is no escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Hamas, nothing that attracts much attention, nor a drop in interest rates in the United States, we do not believe that this was the main vector of gold’s appreciation. in this very short term, especially in these last 30, 40 days”.
The expert suggests that the rise in gold is linked to inflation figures in the United States. He explains that gold tends to perform well in scenarios of inflationary uncertainty. “We very clearly see the rise in gold along with the rise in inflation expectations”, he observes.
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Source: Redação Terra
