Exchange rate: Dollar opens the week stable with cautious market ahead of Fed decision

The dollar started the week with stability in the domestic exchange market, even with losses of the American currency abroad. Investors adopted a cautious stance due to the empty agenda and awaiting a decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed), the US central bank, on Wednesday (1). On that day, the local market will be closed due to the Labor Day holiday.

At the end of the session, the currency had a slight drop of 0.02%, quoted at R$5.11.

Dollar movements

The spot dollar had a minimum variation between the minimum (R$ 5.1029) and the maximum (R$ 5.1205), closing at R$ 5.1153 (-0.02%). Traders report that the session was marked by fine adjustments of positions, after the currency fell 1.60% last week. During the month, it accumulated gains of 1.99%.

Despite the stability, the futures segment had good volume for a Monday, with the dollar futures contract for May worth more than US$14 billion.

DXY index retreats and real underperforms

The DXY index, which measures the dollar’s behavior in relation to a basket of six strong currencies, fell 0.30% in the late afternoon, driven by the advance of the Japanese yen. The latter is recovering from lows in more than three decades, with speculation about government intervention in the exchange rate. The real had the worst performance in the group of Latin American currencies today, while the Chilean and Colombian pesos rose by more than 0.90%.

Expectations regarding the Fed and the dollar

Investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision, hoping that the base interest rate will be kept in the range between 5.25% and 5.50%. Attention turns to the announcement of the decision and the press conference by Fed President Jerome Powell. The market is still working with divided expectations regarding interest rate cuts this year.

External environment and fiscal framework influence the real

Analysts highlight that the external environment continues to influence the exchange rate, but concerns about the Brazilian fiscal framework are also relevant. Tensions between Planalto and the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco, increased after a favorable decision by the Federal Supreme Court to end the payroll tax exemption.

Furthermore, the Central Government presented a primary deficit in March and an accumulated surplus for the year, considered the worst since 2020.