São Paulo, April 30, 2024 – Financial institutions interviewed by the Central Bank (BC) in the survey Focus maintained the forecast for inflation measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in 2024 at 3.73%. The target for inflation in the period is 3.00%.
The forecast for inflation in administered prices – which are controlled by contract or by the public authorities – decreased from 4.03% to 4.02%, while the projection for inflation measured by the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M) maintained up by 2.00%.
For 2025, financial institutions maintained their forecast for inflation measured by the IPCA at 3.60%. The target for inflation in the period is 3.00%.
The forecast for inflation in administered prices in 2025 decreased from 3.93% to 3.92%, while the projection for inflation measured by the IGP-M fell from 3.72% to 3.71%.
Institutions maintained their forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2024 at 2.02%. The projection for 2025 remained stable at 2.00%.
The search kept the forecast for the basic interest rate (Selic) at the end of 2024 is 9.50%. Currently, it is at 10.75%, which means that the market expects a cut of 1.25 percentage points (pp) by the end of the year. Four weeks ago, the estimate for the Selic at the end of 2024 was at 9.00%.
For 2025, the estimate for the Selic rate remained at 9.00%. Four weeks ago, the estimate for the Selic at the end of 2025 was at 8.50%.
The projection for the exchange rate in 2024 remained stable at R$5.00 per dollar, while the estimate for 2025 remained at R$5.05 per dollar. Four weeks ago, the forecast for 2024 was R$4.95, while the forecast for 2025 was R$5.00
Dylan Della Pasqua / Safras News
Copyright 2024 – CMA Group
