The Central Bank of Brazil released this Tuesday the most recent Focus Report, with projections that indicate stability in inflation expectations and economic growth for the coming years.
According to the report, official inflation, measured by IPCA, is projected at 3.73% for 2024, remaining stable in relation to the previous forecast. For 2025 and 2026, expectations also remain stable at 3.60% and 3.50%, respectively.
Projections for the Selic rate indicate maintenance at 9.50% at the end of 2024, with a slight reduction to 9.00% in 2025 and adjustment to 8.63% in 2026. The inflation target established by the Central Bank is 3 .00% for the three years, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points.
With regard to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), market projections for 2024 remain at 2.02%, and for 2025 and 2026, the expectation is for an expansion of 2.00%.
The Central Bank also reported a 0.4% growth in the Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) in February, supporting the vision of a robust start to the year for the Brazilian economy.
In relation to the dollar, expectations for the end of 2024 remain at R$5.00, with stable forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at R$5.05 and R$5.10, respectively.
The projections of the most accurate economists, known as the Top 5, showed a slight increase in inflation estimates for the coming years, with the IPCA forecast at 3.78% for 2024, 3.65% for 2025 and 3.53% for 2026.
The next Focus report will be released on Monday, returning to its traditional publication day, after adjustments due to mobilizations of Central Bank employees due to salary adjustments and career changes.
