Focus: market maintains forecast for interest rates, dollar and inflation

Selic projection for 2026 rose from 8.50% to 8.63%

In contrast to expectations of worsening forecasts, the Central Bank’s Focus Bulletin, released this Tuesday (30), maintained estimates for the main indicators of the Brazilian economy in 2024. The Selic rate, the dollar and inflation (measure by IPCA) remain projected to end the year at 9.59%, R$5 and 3.73%, respectively.

The only relevant change is due to the forecast for Selic in 2026 (which went from 8.50% to 8.63%)

The decision to maintain the forecasts surprises some analysts, considering the adverse international scenario, marked by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and changes in the Brazilian fiscal target. In the domestic scenario, tensions between the government and Congress regarding proposals to increase spending also generate apprehension.

Expectations for the future and the influence of the Fed

Despite the stability in this week’s Focus projections, the market remains attentive to upcoming events that could influence the indicators. The statement from the American Central Bank (Fed), scheduled for Thursday (2), is one of the most anticipated events, which could lead to revisions in forecasts, mainly in relation to interest rates and inflation.

IPCA in Focus

The IPCA estimate for 2024 remained at 3.73%, after showing an increase in the last bulletin. A month earlier, the median was 3.75%. Considering the 152 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median for 2024 rose to 3.70%.

For 2025, which is also the focus of monetary policy, the projection was 3.60%. Projections for 2026 and 2027 remained at 3.50%, the same level as in the last bulletins.

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) has a projection of 3.50% for the IPCA in 2024. For 2025, it also remains at 3.20%.

GDP

The median projections for this year’s GDP remained stable after consecutive increases, at 2.02%. A month earlier, the projection was 1.89%.

In estimates updated in the last five business days, the median for 2024 remained at 2.05%. The projection for 2025 was maintained at 2% for the 20th week in a row, just as that for 2026 remained at 2% for the 38th week.

Selic

The market projection for the basic interest rate, the Selic, remained stable after presenting two consecutive increases. The Selic expectation for 2024 is 9.5%. The estimate for 2025 remained at 9%, and the projection for 2026 rose from 8.50% to 8.63% for the first time after 38 weeks of stability.

Exchange

Financial market economists maintained their expectations for the dollar at the end of this year. The median of the Focus report for 2024 was R$5, after showing an increase in the last bulletin.

In estimates from the last five days, the expectation for the currency this year is R$5.04. The projection for the end of 2025 remained at R$5.05.