The murder rate in major cities in the United States fell 19.9% in the first four months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to data from consultancy AH Datalytics. The trend is for the drop to become more pronounced in the coming months, and the final index could reach the lowest level in five years, according to Jeff Asher, a data analyst who co-founded the company.
Among the main American cities, Boston (-83.33%), Austin (-40%) and New Orleans (-39.73%) showed the biggest drops. Occurrences in Denver (stability), Los Angeles (+9.46%) and Atlanta (+15.38%) did not follow the trend of the others.
Wanted by Sheet, the Boston Police Department said it works in partnership with city hall to combat crime in the city. Police officers rely on data analysis and focus on approaching “individuals who are driving crime”, without detailing how they make this classification. The city hall, in turn, offers services such as specialized trauma teams that support victims of violence and jobs for public school students who want to work during the holidays.
“These strategies have been implemented, but they are never static. They are adjusted daily based on the population’s needs and to address what is happening in the city,” department spokeswoman Mariellen Burns said in the note.
The incidents recorded by the consultancy were specifically classified as murders, a term that in the American definition indicates deaths in which the criminal intended to kill.
In 2020, the increase in the U.S. murder rate was nearly 30% — the highest ever recorded in a year in the database, which began in 1960, Asher wrote. The rate started to fall again in 2022.
During the Covid-19 pandemic, the police’s approach to violent people and places became more difficult; violence prevention programs — such as monitoring young people getting involved in problems — were paused; gun sales increased, and the population became more stressed, which may have caused the increase in incidents, said Alex Piquero, professor of sociology and criminology at the University of Miami. With the total exit from isolation in 2022, rates began to fall.
The decline seen so far in 2024 is a continuation of this decline, says the expert. The trend is for the rate to continue falling in double digits until the end of the year. If it doesn’t reach 2019 levels, it will probably come close, he said. “I hope that when we reach the 2019 level, people won’t say ‘we won,’ but rather ‘let’s keep doing the things that we know are effectively preventing crime,'” Piquero said.
The fight against crime ranks seventh on the list of Americans’ priorities – 58% say that the issue should be prioritized by the president and Congress, according to a survey carried out in January by the Pew Research Center.
Despite this, the issue is not expected to have a major influence on the American presidential race, said Daron Shaw, professor of political science at the University of Texas at Austin. The issue tends to be seen by voters as a municipal and state issue. It is, however, a sensitive point for Democrats, who are trying to connect with a young electorate focused on combating police violence.
“The issue itself may be part of the election discussion, but I don’t think people are going to decide between Donald Trump and Joe Biden based on their approach to crime,” Shaw said.
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