China would have Russia’s support in a possible conflict with Taiwan, says US intelligence chief

The alliance between China and Russia has been growing increasingly stronger, including in the military sphere, and the two countries would probably act together in the event of a conflict involving Taiwan. The assessment is from the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, who spoke to the US Senate last week.

“We see China and Russia, for the first time, exercising together on Taiwan and recognizing that this is a place where China definitely wants Russia to work with them, and we see no reason why they wouldn’t,” he said. she, when questioned by Senator Mike Rounds, according to the newspaper report Taiwan News.

Lieutenant General Jeffrey Kruse, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, also spoke to the Senate and expressed the same opinion, according to the network Bloomberg. The official said that the US Department of Defense is “even more concerned” about the strengthening of the partnership between the rivals, who would “certainly cooperate” militarily if necessary.

The alliance between Moscow and Beijing strengthened during the war in Ukraine, with frequent accusations against Chinese companies that they supply equipment used by the Russian Armed Forces. The issue of Taiwan, however, generates greater concern among North Americans, due to the risk of them themselves having to become involved in a possible conflict due to the alliance with the self-governed island.

According to Haines, a Russian-Chinese partnership in the event of a conflict over the island “is certainly a possibility”, as they have cooperated “in all sectors of society: political, economic, military, technological and so on”. She added: “I think the question of how likely this is differs depending on the scenario.”

Last week, the Taiwan issue was debated in the Senate by Daniel Kritenbrink, US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. And, according to him, the risk of conflict requires caution from Washington, which officially recognizes the island as Chinese territory, part of the “One China” principle established by Beijing.

On the occasion, Kritenbrink defended the maintenance of “peace and stability” in the Taiwan Strait, saying that to achieve this it is crucial that the US maintains its current position and does not recognize the island’s independence. “We believe that changing this picture, changing the core elements of the US ‘One China’ policy, would be reckless. And instead of contributing to stability, we believe it would undermine it,” he said.

Rising tension

The proximity between Washington and the island has led Beijing to toughen its rhetoric in recent years. The crisis took on more dramatic contours after the visit of the then President of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in 2022. She was the first person in the position to travel there in 25 years, an attitude that affected Beijing’s pride.

In response, China carried out one of its largest military exercises around the island, with live fire and missile tests in six different areas. The training served as an effective blockade, preventing both maritime transport and aviation around the island. Therefore, commercial flights had to be canceled, and vessels were prevented from sailing due to the Chinese military presence.

Since then, global expectations for a Chinese invasion have increased considerably. For some experts, such as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the attack “is not imminent”. However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in October 2022 “that Beijing is determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline.”

The statements by the head of North American diplomacy are in line with what Xi said at the 20th Congress of the CPC. “We will continue to fight for peaceful reunification,” he said upon securing his third term at the head of the country. “But we will never promise to renounce the use of force. And we reserve the option to take all necessary measures.”