The Brazilian soybean market showed a slowdown in sales this Wednesday (8). According to Safras ConsultingChicago corrected part of the strong rises of previous sessions and physical market prices also registered a moderate decline.
Producers were more cautious, placing fewer lots on the market. Additionally, with USDA reports approaching, the market as a whole remains in a state of caution.
Soybean prices in Brazil
- Passo Fundo (RS): fell from R$131 to R$126
- Missions Region: dropped from R$130 to R$125
- Port of Rio Grande: continued at R$ 137
- Cascavel (PR): dropped from R$129 to R$128
- Port of Paranaguá (PR): went from R$137 to R$136
- Rondonópolis (MT): fell from R$119 to R$118
- Dourados (MS): went from R$121 to R$119
- Rio Verde (GO): went from R$119 to R$118
Bhi from Chicago
You soybean futures contracts traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed Wednesday with lower prices, with traders taking profits awaiting the May report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which will be released on Friday (10) .
The market positions itself in light of the report, with bearish signals. The USDA is expected to indicate the United States harvest and ending stocks in 2024/25 above the previous season. These will be the first projections for the current season.
Analysts consulted by international agencies are betting on American stocks of 432 million bushels in 2024/25. For 2023/24, the market is betting on a number of 341 million bushels. In April, the forecast was 340 million bushels.
For production, the market expects a number of 4.43 billion bushels for 2024/25. The USDA number for 2023/24 is 4.165 billion bushels.
Supply and demand
In relation to the global supply and demand picture for soybeans, the market is betting on 2024/25 final stocks of 120 million tons. For 2023/24, the market expectation is for a number of 112.4 million, against 114.2 million estimated in April.
For the Brazilian harvest in 2023/24, the bet is on cutting, going from the current 155 million to 152.6 million tons. Argentine production must be reduced from 50 million to 49.5 million tons.
On the market’s radar, there are still two points that supported prices this week: the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, causing damage to crops, and the strike on the 9th in Argentina, which is expected to paralyze the sector and harm exports.
Soybean futures contracts
Soybean grain contracts for delivery in July closed down 18.75 cents, or 1.5%, $12.27 3/4 per bushel. The August position had a quote of $12.27 1/2 per bushel, for a loss of 18.00 cents or 1.44%.
In by-products, the July position for bran closed down US$4.70 or 1.22% at US$378.50 per ton. In oil, contracts expiring in July closed at 43.79 cents, down 0.71 cent or 1.59%.
Exchange
The commercial dollar ended the session up 0.46%, trading at R$5.0907 for sale and R$5.0887 for purchase. During the day, the North American currency fluctuated between a minimum of R$5.0764 and a maximum of R$5.1079.
