As the hot and dry climate normalizes in the main coffee producing countries, global coffee prices are rising. Climate change fuels fears of scarcity. Both cheaper beans and high-quality Arabica beans have risen sharply since the beginning of the year. According to the Financial Times newspaper, this year, coffee reached the highest price since September 2022.
The damage caused by climate change to future coffee harvests is already making coffee much more expensive. At the moment, global stocks of the grain are low, which increases market volatility and speculation, which causes the price to rise.
Faced with a scenario of reduced supply and, possibly, even more losses, the value of coffee could rise even further. In Vietnam, the second largest producer of the grain, May delivery prices reached highs of US$3,849 per ton.
Coffee in Brazil
Brazil is the largest coffee producer in the world, responsible for around 40% of global production. However, although grain cultivation in the country has grown in 2023 Compared to previous years, projections indicate that Brazilian coffee crops will probably be the most affected among all producers in the world.
The data is part of the climate modeling from the Gro Intelligence platform. They also suggest that the number of days with temperatures above 34°C between September and October will increase by mid-century. This is the most critical period of the year, as it is when Brazilian coffee blooms. Furthermore, the report estimates that rainfall will decrease by 10% by 2050.
In general, researches suggest that exposure to temperatures above 30°C tends to cause problems in the grain. Thus, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that global coffee yields could decline by a third by 2050.
In this scenario of unstable climate between droughts and floods, with high temperatures, the fruits either dry out or become so-called floats, which are grains that consist of practically empty shells.
“The plant doesn’t know how to react. It completely breaks its logical sequence. The plant has flowers, chumbinho [frutos em estágio inicial], coffee matured, dry coffee, all at the same time. This is horrible,” José Oscar Ferreira Cintra, whose farm is in Bragança Paulista, São Paulo, told Mongabay.
Brazilian reality
The Southeast region, especially the state of Minas Gerais, leads grain production. In total, the four federative units together added 86% of national production from the year 2023. On average, around 25% of the country’s coffee harvest is produced in Minas Gerais alone.
But this region has also faced effects of climate change, which intensify and make climate events more frequent. In 2024 alone, the Southeast was affected by four heat waves that hit Brazil.
As a result, temperatures rose above the average for the period. Parts of the state of Minas Gerais hit thermometers at around 3°C or 4°C above normal. Furthermore, rainfall during December, January and February – the usual period of heaviest precipitation – was approximately 10% of normal.
According to report card of Conab (National Supply Company), exports of brazilian coffee between January and November they decreased by 4.1% compared to the previous year.
Alternatives
In total, 78% of the production of coffee in Brazil is made on small farms, according to IBGE. Spread across Brazil, each coffee growing region has its particularities and, as a result, is impacted by climate change in a different way, which means that there is no single solution.
However, two strategies are important. Firstly, the use of irrigation techniques, which allow crops to be watered even in drier periods.
Then, there is also the possibility of planting large trees between the plantations. According to Unicamp studythis technique allows the shading of the beans, which reduces the thermal stress of the coffee plantations.
Furthermore, it can also increase air humidity and help contain winds.
