A small island in the Pacific with an area slightly larger than the state of Alagoas, Taiwan has recently acquired the capacity to, turn and move, add fuel to the fire of global geopolitics, by emitting and reflecting signals that fuel the fierce competition between the United States and China for global hegemony. An exponent of capitalism planted on the doorstep of the communist giant since the rise of Mao Zedong, 75 years ago, the territory has developed over time the ability to position itself on this sensitive tightrope. Now, the scenario has changed: under the command of the all-powerful President Xi Jinping, “reunification” has become a point of honor both for the Beijing government, which announces its intention to extend its rule to the island, and for Washington, which promises to do do everything to prevent this from happening.
Anyone who walks along the wide avenues of the capital, Taipei, full of people, skyscrapers, temples, museums, green areas and cafes where the typical and ubiquitous bubble tea is sold, does not notice this state of tension. The 23 million Taiwanese people enjoy the best public health and education systems in the world, low crime rates (it is the third safest place on the planet), and have a per capita income of $34,400, higher than in Japan. Portugal and Saudi Arabia. “These are things we wouldn’t have under the Chinese communist regime,” says architect Ruby Lu Pinham, 25 years old. The strength is a direct consequence of a central piece in the dispute between China and the USA: the local semiconductor industry, which accounts for 15% of GDP. The backbone of the interconnected world, this component, which conducts electrical currents in the form of microchips, is present in every corner of the electronic universe. And Taiwan, through practically a single company, TSMC, manufactures 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced models.
Supplying the planet’s industries with microchips essential for their existence created a kind of “silicon shield” for the small island, guaranteeing allies in the event of a Chinese invasion. “It’s not just our problem, it’s the whole world’s problem,” Taiwanese Chancellor Joseph Wu told VEJA. Until some time ago, dependence on Taiwanese chips was well managed by all parties, but the climate of hostility between Beijing and Washington has shaken this trade — the United States imposes increasing taxes and sanctions on the supply of electronic components to China, and Taiwan is cutting ties with its biggest client. The Asian dragon directed 50 billion dollars to local semiconductor production, with the aim of meeting 70% of domestic demand by 2025. The United States, in turn, approved an investment of 53 billion dollars to boost the proliferation of factories of chips in its surroundings — TSMC itself is building a mega-plant in the state of Arizona. “The restrictions made Taiwan move away from the Chinese,” says Scott Kennedy, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In the first quarter of this year, Washington displaced Beijing for the first time as the island’s main export destination, with purchases worth 26 billion dollars.
This change of trade route towards the United States has accelerated in recent years, after Xi began to define the resumption of control of the island as “inevitable”. In the same period, the number of Chinese warplanes that crossed the unofficial Taiwan Strait dividing line almost doubled, to more than 1,700. In parallel to the threats, China expanded its Army at an alarming rate. The country today has the largest Navy in the world, with a projected force of 400 ships by 2025 (the United States has fewer than 300, Taiwan just 26), and the nuclear arsenal is expanding. “Beijing hardens as Taiwan tries to maintain the status quo, its ambiguous democratic existence,” says Chin-fu Hung, a politics professor at National Cheng Kung University in Taipei. Even President-elect William Lai, who has a fierce anti-China speech, promises to avoid changes when he takes office on the 20th.
Rebutting Xi’s threats, President Joe Biden has already declared on four occasions, without compromise, that he would send American soldiers to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion – although his advisors emphasize that this provision does not change the White House’s policy of “ambiguity strategic”, which admits that the territory is part of China (only eleven countries recognize independent Taiwan), but it is up to the American government to protect its democracy. “A Chinese invasion is not inevitable, but in these explosive times nothing is impossible,” Drew Thompson, former advisor to the American Department of Defense, told VEJA. The possibility mobilizes the Taiwanese. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an example that the population fears China will follow, prompted the creation of the Kuma Academy, a non-profit organization that offers military and defense training to civilians. “It is vital that people learn to protect themselves. We need to prepare for the worst”, argues Klaus Lee, 36 years old, one of Kuma’s instructors.
The objective of the academy is to complement mandatory military service, which in 2024 increased from four months to one year. “I’m afraid of a conflict, but if it happens, I want to defend our freedom,” says student Yating Yi, who, at 17, is waiting to be called up to join the Army. In Taiwan, defense spending rose from 1.8% of GDP in 2016 to 2.6% this year, which allowed, among other things, the implementation of an anti-missile system that provides eight minutes for the population to escape. shelter in case of attack. Taiwan’s intention is to resist, even though its Army of 169,000 men is dwarfed by the 2 million Chinese soldiers.
Continues after advertising
Taiwan, then known as Formosa (name given by Portuguese navigators), began its existence separate from mainland China when General Chiang Kai-shek fled there after being defeated by communist forces in 1949. It became, in Western eyes, China “for real”, a pawn of the Cold War entitled to unconditional support from the United States. For forty years, his party, the Kuomintang, governed the island under martial law, invoking the communist threat to control the lives of the population with an iron fist. At least 140,000 people were arrested during the so-called “white terror”, of which 2,000 were executed. The first free elections only took place in 1996 and since then the regime has become democratized. “We already live under a dictatorship. We cannot take our freedom for granted,” says Fred Chin Him-San, 75, a retired engineer who spent twelve years in prison for alleged links to the Chinese Communist Party. New generations that have not experienced the predominant Chinese nationalism in the past are keen to keep their distance from the mainland: research by the Center for Electoral Studies at National Chengchi University revealed that 61% of the island’s population identifies as Taiwanese, only 2.7% as Chinese and 32.9% as both. Ambiguity, strategic or not, is going out of fashion in Taiwan.
Published in VEJA on May 10, 2024, issue no. 2892
