Scientists predict the most intense hurricane season on record for 2024 | Hurricanes

A team of researchers led by University of Pennsylvania climatologist Michael Mann predicts that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will produce the largest number of storms on record, driven by exceptionally warm ocean waters and an expected change in El Niño for La Nina. The new forecast points to a range of 27 to 39 storms, with an estimate of 33. The maximum recorded was 30 storms in 2020.

The forecast is consistent with those recently released by Colorado State University and the website AccuWeatherbut it is even more aggressive.

“The unprecedented heat in the tropical Atlantic right now – which we expect to persist through hurricane season – is the dominant factor behind our forecast,” Mann said in a email. “Although we do not make a specific forecast for storms making landfall… an unusually active season in terms of basin-wide activity will likely translate into an unusually active season in terms of storms making landfall,” he concluded. .

Ocean temperatures reached record levels more than a year ago due to a combination of climate change caused by man and El Niñoand have remained there ever since, remaining at a record level for 417 consecutive days.

Although the El Niño increasing global ocean temperatures tends to produce wind patterns in the Atlantic that suppress the development of tropical storms. But ocean waters were so warm during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season that despite this, an above-average number of storms was recorded.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a heat wave marine, i.e. sea surface temperatures well above normal, will continue in the tropical Atlantic until at least September. Forecasters are concerned about an active hurricane season, as warmer ocean waters typically increase the intensity of storms.

Pattern changes in summer

However, it is expected that the El Niño pass to La Nina this summer. The pattern La Nina tends to have the opposite impact of El Niño in hurricane season – producing wind patterns that favor the development of storms in the Atlantic – further increasing the likelihood of an active season. If the La Nina weakens in the latter part of the hurricane season, the forecast will decrease slightly to a range of 25 to 36 storms and an estimated 31 storms, according to Mann’s research group.

A tropical storm gets its name if its winds reach at least 39 mph (62 km/hour). When winds reach at least 74 mph (119 km/hour), a tropical storm becomes a hurricane.

The forecast of 33 named storms is the largest the University of Pennsylvania team has ever predicted. Led by Mann, famous for his “stick hockey” that describes a sudden increase in global temperatures over the last century, the research group has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 2009. The number of actual storms has been within the predicted range in nine of the 15 forecasts.

Mann said his team uses a different method than other groups that issue seasonal hurricane forecasts. “We are the only group that came close (predicting up to 24 storms) to predicting the record-breaking 2020 season,” recalls Michael Mann.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th, although storms sometimes form before or after these dates. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center issued a special warning last week about a tropical whirlpool they are monitoring in the open Atlantic, but said it has only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical storm.

On average, a hurricane season produces about 14 tropical storms, of which about half become hurricanes. Seven of the last eight hurricane seasons have seen above-average activity; the 2022 season was the only exception, with activity close to average. There have been at least 20 storms in three of the last four seasons.