#NoToRussianLaw. “Georgia has a long experience of popular resistance to unpopular governments” and is now at the most “decisive crossroads” in its history

A year after promising the “unconditional withdrawal” of a controversial bill similar to the one Putin implemented in Russia in 2012, the Georgian government is taking great strides to approve it. In a legislative year, and with the door to the EU open, civil society has been on the streets for two weeks without showing any signs of tiredness. The final vote on the bill on “foreign agents” will take place later this month. And everything is open

For the most attentive Europeans, it is a repeat of what happened on Maidan Square, in Kiev, 10 years ago. For Georgians, it is a repeat of what happened a year ago – and the hope is that, just like a year ago, the government will backtrack on its intention to move forward with the “foreign agents law”, dubbed “Russian law” by the opposition .

At issue is a bill presented by the government of Irakli Kobakhidze, from the Georgian Dream party, in March 2023 and which, in the face of mass protests, the prime minister promised to “unconditionally withdraw”. A year later, the promise faded. On April 17, Georgia’s parliament gave its first approval to the controversial bill to force all non-governmental and media organizations that receive more than 20% external funding to register as “foreign agents”. The second step towards approval was taken this week. The third will take place in mid-May.

“The government is totally isolated right now, it even physically appears to be locked in the parliament building,” explains Stephen F. Jones, director of the Georgia studies program at Harvard University’s Davis Center. “Still, it seems determined to pass this law and the third reading and vote will take place in mid-May, possibly on May 17th, which is a symbolic day in the country.”

On that day, Family Day, “the conservative values ​​that the Georgian Dream supports are celebrated and what this implicitly means is the rejection of minorities such as the LGBT community, which the government has also promised to restrict through legislation, again following Putin’s route”, says the professor of Modern Georgian History at Ilia State University, in Tbilisi. And until then, anything can happen.

Sabotage European integration

Georgians are back on the streets and clashes with police over the past two weeks have resulted in more than 60 arrests in the capital, Tbilisi, and dozens of injuries, including the leader of the main opposition party, Levan Khabeishvili, of the National Movement. Kingdom, who was beaten by the police. From the West there have been repeated warnings about the indiscriminate use of force against protesters, amid reports of tear gas, water cannons and stun grenades to suppress the protests. In response to criticism from the United States, the Georgian government accused Washington of “encouraging” violence in the country with “falsehoods” about the law under debate.

On social network X, the head of state of the South Caucasus country continues to express her support for the protesters. “To those who claim that a pro-European Georgia means turning our backs on Georgian traditions: we will have Europe and we will be even more Georgian,” President Salome Zourabichvili wrote on Thursday. Days earlier, in another tweet: “The Georgian people cannot and will not be silenced! NoToRussianLaw .”

“The opposition calls it Russian law because it is similar in every way to the law that Vladimir Putin approved in Russia in 2012, designed to control civil society organizations and put them under pressure, to increase government control”, explains Jones. “If this law is passed, it will curtail one of the main areas of Georgian society that has been able to create an independent political space to preserve democracy in Georgia. If this law passes, things will change dramatically.”

There are some differences in relation to what happened in the Ukrainian capital 10 years ago, but what is at stake is similar in everything, says the expert. “At the time, what happened [em Kiev] was that Viktor Yanukovych accepted a large loan from Russia at the expense of the support offered by the European Union, which led to the revolt on Maidan Square and the deposition of Yanukovych. This is similar to what happened in 2014 in Ukraine because here we are also faced with a choice between the path towards Europe and the pro-Russian path. That’s how Georgians see it.”

Successive polls over the last few years have shown that a vast majority of Georgian citizens are in favor of greater European integration, “and this is true not only in Tbilisi, but in many provinces”, indicates Stephen Jones. With Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Georgia’s accession process was accelerated: the country submitted a formal candidacy in March of that year and, last December, the EU granted the country official EU status. candidate. “One after another, European authorities have said that this law will prevent Georgia’s integration. And despite the country being a candidate for EU membership, the government appears to be sabotaging the entire process.”

With legislative elections in October, “why introduce this now?”

There is a substantial difference between the protests now underway and those that took place a year ago in Tbilisi, when the “foreign agents” bill was first introduced. “It remains unpredictable how this will end, because the population that is resisting this law does not know how to resist, other than demonstrating in the streets”, explains Jones.

“These protests are very different from last year, in which opposition political parties united against the bill,” he continues. “This time the demonstrations are being more spontaneous, they are involving mainly young people, they do not have great leadership. Political parties were not invited to lead this opposition to the law, because people are so disillusioned. This is more of a civil movement, less partisan. When you look at the protests, you don’t see leaders, just people, mostly students, resisting and deliberately keeping the parties at a distance. The downside is that no one really knows how to organize themselves and there is no leadership. But at the same time we have an isolated and very weakened Georgian Dream government.”

O timing of the proposal is also not to be neglected, when there is a month left until the European elections and, above all, less than half a year until the legislative elections in the country. “Everything is clearly interconnected”, assumes the expert. “The Georgian Dream faces elections in October, why introduce this now?” The answer comes soon after.

“The government anticipated that there would be resistance, but that it would not be as strong. But in fact, people are taking to the streets in their thousands every day – we’re talking big numbers, there’s a very real movement of civic resistance taking place. Georgia has a long experience of popular resistance to unpopular governments. What I think is that, with this, the government wanted to tire the opposition before the elections. But I think he made the calculations wrong.”

With the third vote still without a set date, the next few weeks will be decisive. “I don’t know how this is going to end,” concedes Jones. “I hope it doesn’t end violently. The government is being quite provocative, creating situations to incite violence and having an excuse to repress protesters, with the support of a certain section of the population.” This may be what the Georgians are waiting for, “but we have to wait until the third reading. The government wants to tire them out before that, but I think that after that there will be massive resistance again. Georgia is at a crossroads, this is a decisive moment for the country’s politics and history: which path will it take? The EU has already opened the door – will they enter or will they reject the invitation and remain in Russia’s sphere of influence?”