Russia is preparing to celebrate the third Victory Day since the war in Ukraine began and its meaning is changing before our eyes
For Russia, May 9 is a complex date. Victory Day is a date that celebrates not only the sacrifices made by the Soviet Union in fighting the Nazis during the Second World War, but also serves as a demonstration of Russia’s military power and greatness. However, since 2022, the Russians have been plotting the conquest of several Ukrainian territories to coincide with this date, but Vladimir Putin has not had much to present to the country.
This year, the Russian military leadership defined the conquest of the city of Chasiv Yar as one of the main objectives for the date. This Ukrainian city, neighboring Bakhmut, has been enduring some of the most violent shelling that has hit the front line for weeks. In April, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, admitted that the situation at this point on the front had “significantly deteriorated”, after Russia had set out to conquer this city by May 9th.
The reason was clear. For Russia, this city is vital to its goals in the Donbass region. Despite being small, Chasiv Yar, which had just 12,000 inhabitants before the war began, serves as a logistical node for the Ukrainian army on the Bakhmut front. It is from this location that all equipment is distributed to the units located on this front.
If Russia managed to conquer it, it would jeopardize the logistical support of the entire region, which could allow the Russian army to increase pressure in this area. If this happens, Russia will have an open path to Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the last great strongholds of Donetsk.
Map of Ukraine after the conquest of Avdiivka (CNN)
In the last weeks of April, the situation even seemed to be a realistic possibility, with Russia exploiting the lack of Ukrainian anti-aircraft and artillery ammunition. But after the approval of the US military aid package, Ukrainian soldiers have managed to contain the attacks of more than 25 thousand Russian soldiers in the region.
This is not the first time that Russia has set territorial conquest targets for May 9th. For ten months, Moscow threw everything it had into trying to conquer the city of Bakhmut. It was at the beginning of 2023, when the Wagner Group intensified its operations in the city, leading to some of the bloodiest battles of the entire war, which would be decisive in the outcome of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the iconic leader of the paramilitary group. According to Western sources, Russia suffered 60,000 casualties, including 20,000 deaths. It took until May 20th for the city to fall into Russian hands.
And this had repercussions on the celebrations in Moscow. Every year, hundreds of combat vehicles parade through the streets of the capital. But, if in the 2022 parade, the T-34, an iconic combat vehicle widely used in the Second World War, was accompanied by several of the most modern T-90 and T-14, the same did not happen in last year’s ceremony. None of these models were present, due to the intensification of the conflict. Instead, the T-34 was accompanied by a column of multipurpose but much less valuable fighting vehicles, the Tigr.
The usual aerial passage over Red Square was also left out, despite weather forecasts pointing to relatively clear skies over Moscow.
Visible were only the usual elements of Russian military propaganda, the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launchers, which are part of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal, and the S-400 air defense system, which Russia describes as the most advanced mechanism in the world. .
Instead of demonstrating his military power, at a difficult time on the battlefield, Vladimir Putin focused on presenting himself as the savior and defender of a Russia in trouble, targeted by the “globalist elites” of the West. “Today, civilization is again at a breaking point,” Putin said. “Once again, a real war has been unleashed against our homeland.”
In 2022, the expectation was different. Although there was no defined geographic objective, since Russia still expected to keep a large part of Ukrainian territory, a fear hovered in the air. Several Western sources feared that the Russian president would formally declare war on Ukraine on May 9, a decision that would allow the full mobilization of Russia’s reserve forces, at a time when they had not yet been called up.
This year, the expectation remains, but with an increasingly heavier “bill” to present to the Russian people. According to the United Kingdom’s Armed Forces Minister, Leo Docherty, Russia has suffered more than 450,000 casualties, including 150,000 deaths. But material losses are also significant, with Western sources estimating that more than ten thousand armored vehicles have been destroyed by Ukraine.
With each passing year, we watch Vladimir Putin’s regime shape one of Russia’s main collective myths into something completely different. “They turned this unifying myth that Russia had into a justification for a real war,” says Maxim Trudolyubov, a Russian journalist. “This subtly turned everything upside down – it turned a cult of victory into a cult of war.”
