PSI grows 2% in March and reverses the downward trend of the last 3 months

PSI grows 2% in March and reverses the downward trend of the last 3 months
PSI grows 2% in March and reverses the downward trend of the last 3 months

The monthly ranking of companies with an increase in market value in March includes BCP (17.1%), Altri (16%), CTT (13.6%), NOS (12.7%), Navigator (7.8%), Semapa (7.8%), Galp (5.1%), Corticeira Amorim (4.1%), Sonae SGPS (3.5%), Ibersol (2 .4%), Greenvolt (0.6%) and REN (0.5%).

The PSI ended the month of March this year with a value of 6,280.5 points, which means a monthly growth of 2%, in a context of generalized growth in the European and North American markets.

The 2% monthly growth reflects a reversal of the downward trajectory of the last 3 months.

The PSI’s monthly variation band oscillates between BCP’s 17.1% rise and Jerónimo Martins’ 16.9% fall.

In March, 12 companies listed on the PSI had monthly growth in their prices and only four suffered a drop on the stock market.

The monthly ranking of companies with an increase in value in March includes BCP (17.1%), Altri (16%), CTT (13.6%), NOS (12.7%), Navigator (7.8%), Semapa (7.8%), Galp (5.1%), Corticeira Amorim (4.1%), Sonae SGPS (3.5%), Ibersol (2. 4%), Greenvolt (0.6%) and REN (0.5%).

On the other hand, the companies with a decrease in stock market value in March were Jerónimo Martins (-16.9%), Mota-Engil (-15.2%), EDP (-1.9% ) and EDP Renováveis ​​(-0.4%).

The data was analyzed by Maxyield – Clube dos Pequenos Acionistas.

The association says that, unlike the first fortnight, the PSI followed the trend of international markets in the second half of the month.

“The strong volatility of the North American indices in the first half of the month and the uniform trajectory of monthly growth of the European reference index deserve reference”, says Maxyield, adding that this behavior is associated with the perspectives and reactions of investors to decisions on the evolution of interest rates, taken on March 7th by the ECB and March 20th by the Fed.

The PSI in March was within the variation range [5.750 pontos – 6.300 pontos]which constituted the dominant position in 2022 and 2023, as well as a reference for levels reached eight years ago.

However, towards the end of the month it approached the support level of the previous range. [6.300 pontos – 7.750 pontos]which had entered in November 2023 and left in February 2024, and reports us to highs that occurred in 2014 and levels reached 10 years ago.

In the annual accumulated evolution (since the beginning of the year), it remains at a negative level of around -1.8%. “The behavior of the PSI is marked by strong volatility in January, which reduced significantly in February and March”, says Maxyield.

“The annual variation band is quite wide and oscillates between the 21.6% increase for Mota-Engil and the 32.3% drop for EDP Renováveis, with 10 titles showing a positive annual variation and 6 companies suffering drops in your quote.”

The companies with positive annual variation were Mota-Engil (21.6%), Galp (14.8%), CTT (18.3%), Navigator (14.1%), BCP (13. 9%), Altri (13.7%), NOS (13.3%), Semapa (11.2%), Corticeira Amorim (7.5%) and Ibersol (1.2%).

The six companies with an annual drop in share price were EDP Renováveis ​​(-32.3%), EDP (-20.7%), Jerónimo Martins (-20.2%%), REN (-5.4 %), Sonae SGPS (-2.7%), and Greenvolt (-0.2%).

Within the framework of the annual devaluation of prices, there are six companies in a situation of bear market (EDP Renováveis, EDP, REN, NOS, Jerónimo Martins and Sonae SGPS) with drops of more than 20% compared to the last maximum. “Situations of bear marketas a whole they represent 48.3% of the PSI, with emphasis on the energy and retail sectors”, says Maxyield.

One bear market occurs when there is a 20% or more drop in prices from recent highs.

“It is for this reason that the annual evolution is negative and the year-on-year growth is quite timid (3.9%) when compared to the strong variation in international markets (except China)”, says the entity led by Carlos Rodrigues.

“This situation had already occurred in 2023 in relation to EDP, EDP Renováveis ​​and Jerónimo Martins, and will repeat itself again at the beginning of 2024, with the last maximum occurring in December”, according to the association.

REN reached its last maximum in April 2023, at around 2.75 euros, thereafter suffering a progressive reduction of up to 20% at the end of February.

The company’s economic fundamentals, associated with contextual conditions in terms of prices, evolution of demand, interest rates and regulation, explain this situation surrounding the energy sector.

NOS, which technically entered the bear market in 2023, it has not yet left this situation, although it shows a recent improvement, adds Maxyield.

Sonae SGPS reached its last maximum on March 10, 2023, and on March 5, 2024 it recorded a drop of 20%, starting from then on a slight recovery.

Overall, the PSI maintains its bull market“but loses across the board in the annual confrontation with international markets”, concludes the association.

Looking at the year-on-year evolution of the PSI, it is 3.9% with a very high range of variation. “The year-on-year variation of the PSI does not support the comparison with the European benchmark, nor with the North American indices”, says Maxyield.

O top five with the highest year-on-year growth is made up of the shares of Mota-Engil (203.2%), BCP (53.2%), Galp (46.4%), Greenvolt (23.1%) and Navigator (22.9%) .

The ranking of the five companies with the greatest year-on-year decrease in value involves EDP Renováveis ​​(-40.5%), EDP (-28%), REN (-18.5%), J. Martins (-15% ) and NOS (-14%).

Unsurprisingly, Mota-Engil prominently occupies the leadership in the year-on-year growth of shares in the PSI business universe.

Galp benefits from the level of crude oil prices and exploration conditions in Namibia.

Paper companies show less depressed behavior compared to the recent past, influenced by better contextual conditions relating to business activity.

The retailers Jerónimo Martins and Sonae SGPS, which together have a weight of 17.9% in the PSI, show depressed behavior.

The year-on-year variation confirms the weak performance of the energy sector and the good behavior of BCP.

In international markets, the highlight goes to the United States. The S&P 500 index, made up of the largest 500 companies listed on the NYSE, grew by 24% in 2023 and began 2024 on an increasing trajectory, showing an annual increase of 10.2%.

The American technology index Nasdaq increased by 43% in 2023 and began 2024 on an upward trend, with annual growth of 9.1%.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices entered the bull marketrespectively in the months of May and June 2023.

“The growth of the stock market in the USA is centered on technology with high market capitalization, and it is urgent to know the behavior of the variety of sectors in Corporate America, centered on companies with smaller capitalization and without the scale of the giants that make up the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, through analysis of the Russell 2000 index”, reveals Maxyield.

The Russell 2000, after growing 15% in 2023, followed, in March, the dynamism of the North American stock market, with a monthly growth of 3.4% and an annual increase of 4.8%.

The North American stock market is positively influenced by the growth of technology companies with strong market capitalization, the resilience of the labor market and the evolution of GDP.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index, which brings together the 600 largest European listed companies, experienced 13% growth in 2023 and presented an annual increase of 7% in March.

The Stoxx 600 remains on the trajectory of the bull market started in February of the previous year and has currently reached historic highs.

“The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Stoxx 600 suffered significant drops in the months of August, September and October 2023, reversing this trajectory with a rally stock market in the months of November and December, in a growth process that presents a lot of energy in the first three months of 2024”, reveals the association, noting that the annual growth rate of these North American indices, in 2024, is more than double the benchmark European.

The French and German markets received a new boost in March and show significant year-on-year growth.

The London FTSE 100 index ended 2023 with growth of 4%.

IBEX 35 growth in 2023 was 22.8%, significantly above the PSI.

This index in March shows an annual growth of 9.6%, following a monthly increase of 10.7%, with all companies showing positive share prices.

In terms of the annual behavior of the Spanish market, the banking and oil sectors stand out positively, with the negative note originating in the energy sector.

When it comes to the Chinese stock market, it shows a trajectory of monthly declines, interrupted by robust growth in February that did not continue in March.

The article is in Portuguese

Tags: PSI grows March reverses downward trend months



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