Results still do not take into account the controversy surrounding Chega’s financing, after an audit of the party detected “possible prohibited financing”
If the legislative elections were held today… the AD would win. This is what indicates the tracking poll IPESPE/ Duplimetric for today’s TVI and CNN Portugal, which presents the same distance as on Friday between the two parties, when PS saw the coalition led by Luís Montenegro move away.
The fieldwork took place on the 28th and 29th of February and the 1st of March, including the whole episode of the green ink spilled on Luís Montenegro, as well as the controversial statements made by the vice-president of the CDS, Paulo Núncio, about abortion, in addition to the remains of Pedro Passos Coelho’s intervention.
The impact of the news reported by Exclusivo, on TVI’s Jornal Nacional, about Chega’s financing and André Ventura’s subsequent reaction have not yet affected this estimate.
AD and PS remained and Chega rose to 15%. There are still three highlights: the Liberal Initiative lost one percentage point, as happened with Livre and the number of undecided voters increases again, as March 10 approaches.
A tracking poll It does not predict final results, it mainly allows you to analyze trends. It is a common tool in several countries, and is also historically used by Portuguese political parties, which only use it internally and to evaluate the evolution of the campaign. As two years ago, in the 2022 legislative elections, TVI and CNN will publish daily results.
A tracking poll is made from a mobile panel of 600 people representing the electorate. From this panel, 200 people are removed every day and another 200 added (see technical sheet below).
Daily poll
| P.S. | AD | He arrives | IL | BE | CDU | |
| 24/Feb | 22 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 5 | two |
| 25/Feb | 21 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | two |
| 26/Feb | 21 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 4 | two |
| 27/Feb | 21 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 4 | two |
| 28/Feb | 22 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 4 | two |
| 29/Feb | 22 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 5 | two |
| 1/mar | 22 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 4 | two |
| 2/mar | 22 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 4 | two |
| PAN | Free | DNA | Undecided | Others/Blanks and nulls | |
| 24/Feb | 1 | 3 | – | 18 | 5 |
| 25/Feb | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 5 |
| 26/Feb | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 5 |
| 27/Feb | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 6 |
| 28/Feb | two | 3 | 0 | 16 | 5 |
| 29/Feb | 1 | 3 | 15 | 5 | |
| 1/mar | 1 | 3 | 17 | 4 | |
| 2/mar | 1 | two | 18 | 5 |
Datasheet
This survey was carried out by IPESPE/ Duplitrica for TVI and CNN Portugal.
Random interviews by quotas were carried out on February 28th, 29th and March 1st, 2024.
200 interviews were carried out per day, totaling 600 interviews, representative of the registered electorate in Portugal, aged 18 and over, based on gender criteria (53% women and 47% men), age (24% aged 18 to 34). ; 33% aged 35 to 54; and 43% aged 55 and over), and region (20% North, 14% Greater Porto, 22% Center, 28% Lisbon, 12% South and 5% Islands).
The maximum margin of error for the total sample is 4.1 percentage points, for a confidence level of 95.45%.
The selection of interviewees was carried out through random generation of “mobile phone” numbers, maintaining an approximate proportion of the three main mobile operators. When necessary, fixed numbers were randomly selected to support compliance with the sampling plan.
The interviews were collected via telephone interview (CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The response rate was 56.82%.
Tracking aimed to monitor the evolution of Portuguese voters’ opinions on topics related to the legislative elections, to be held on March 10, 2024.
The complete technical file and the results of this survey were deposited with the Social Communication Regulatory Authority.
