Weather on Thursday, May 2, 2024

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O The weather on Thursday, May 2nd, will also be marked by some showers, which will progressively increase in the continental territory, and become less frequent – in the morning they can be frequent on the North and Central coast, while in the afternoon they will be occasional, only in the North region

Therefore, we have already noticed the first signs of changing to a slightly drier pattern, and slowly becoming warmer, with clouds beginning to disappear in the afternoon from South to Northand precipitation should no longer appear in the North Interior and Central region on this day

The temperature maximum temperature will rise – between 1 and 3ºC, but we continue to have an environment that is more reminiscent of Winter than May – and we are predicting a gradual change in the coming days – you can see the FULL FORECAST FOR MAY HERE

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We predict some west wind, especially in the afternoon, so despite the rise in maximum temperature, the day will be somewhat unpleasant

In the Azores we wait rainy weather, especially in the Central and Eastern islands, with moderate to strong wind, from the Southwest

In Madeira the continuation of the North flow is expected, some humidity, but practically no rain – mild and calm weather

In the MetOffice letter we can see depressions close to the Azores, while the anticyclone already exerts influence, especially in the south of mainland Portugal, as well as in Madeira

WEATHER FORECAST ON THURSDAY, ON THE CONTINENT

SUMMARY: Generally cloudy skies north of the Montejunto-Estrela mountain system, but with GOOD open in the interior, especially during the afternoon. More sun to the south of the aforementioned mountain system, as well as drier. Showers in the North and Center, especially on the coast, and in the afternoon it should only rain more in the North. You can still snow above 1400m altitude. Moderate wind, and sea like some agitation

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Generally cloudy skies, showing GOOD OPENS in the interior and in the regions south of the Tagus
Showers, sometimes with hail and the possibility of thunderstorms, especially on the North and Central coast, with possible snow above 1400m (temporarily 1200m in the North)
To the Maximum temperatures rise, between 1 and 3ºC, in general, while minimum temperatures fall in some places – probability of FROSTS
It will therefore be a day with temperature values maximum temperature of around 10 to 15ºC in the majority of the territory, with lower values appearing in the North, especially in the Interior, with values in general between 7 and 11ºC – and in some places in the South region the temperature will still be close to 20ºC, especially in the Algarve
The lows will be around 4 at 10ºC in most of the territory, to be expected lower values in the North, in the Interior, in particular, (2-5ºC), as well as in the mountains (negative above 1200m) and slightly higher on the coast (9-14ºC)
We predict wind generally weak in the early morning, becoming moderate from the morning onwards, and occasionally strong in the afternoon, especially on the coast and exposed highlands (3040km/h) and with gusts of up to 50km/h from the WestSouthwest
A Sea water temperatures remain at around 15ºC on the North West Coast, and 15-16ºC on the rest of the West Coast
At the Algarve the sea will have a temperature of around 17ºC
Sea with waves up to around 2-3m across the West Coast
On the South Coast of the Algarve we will have waves up to 1m
UV radiation: 67 (Very High)

To illustrate this prediction we leave the temperature forecast by the ARPEGE model, potentially seeing a relatively cold day for the season, once again and the precipitation forecast (hour by hour) by the IFS-ECMWF model – showers gradually becoming restricted to the North coast

Please note that the forecast may differ from reality, it only serves to give an indication from numerical forecast models.

TEMPERATURES ON FARM (ARPEGE)

PRECIPITATION (ECMWF)

Rain on Thursday - Showers

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WEATHER FORECAST ON QUINTA, IN THE AZORES

Summary: This Thursday, In the Azores, we expect a lot of clouds, with rain, especially in the Central and Eastern islands. Wind at times strong, from the Southwest, and gusty, with the sea somewhat rough, too. mild weather

Generally cloudy skies, with some open skies, especially in the Western Islands
Periods of rain or showers, being more frequent and intense in the Central and Eastern islands
Temperatures should remain unchanged compared to previous days
Wind generally moderate, from the Southwest (2035km/h), sometimes blowing moderate to strong (35-50km/h) and with gusts of up to 75km/h, especially in the Western and Central islands
We predict temperatures in between 14ºC to 16ºC (minimum), It is 17 to 23ºC (maximum), a mild and relatively pleasant day
Gradually rougher sea, with waves of up to 3m, from the Southwest, from the afternoon onwards, on the Western islands, and up to 2m on the Central and Eastern islands
Sea water around 18ºC temperature
UV radiation: 4-5 (High), with 78 (Very high) in the Western group

To this day we can see, by the ECMWF model, the 24-hour precipitation forecast in the Azores

PRECIPITATION, AZORES – ECMWF – QUINTA

Rain on Farm - Azores

WEATHER FORECAST ON QUINTA, MADEIRA

Summary: We expect another day for this Thursday with some humidity in the Madeira, with a Northwest flow, similar to the previous day, with many clouds on the northern slopes and mountainous areas and once again with open areas on the southern slopes – occurrence of some light precipitation – although not very significant – temperatures without major changes – light wind

Generally cloudy skies (possibility of open weather on south-facing slopes)
Light showers or periods of rain on the northern slopes and mountainous areas of Madeira Island, especially during the afternoon
Wind generally weak to moderate, between 10 and 20km/h, from the Northwest – very calm
We expect maximum temperatures of up to 21 or 22ºC and minimum temperatures between 15 and 18ºC
UV radiation: 78 (High to very high)
Sea with waves up to 1 to 1.5m overall
Sea water at around 21ºC of temperature

A slightly humid day, with precipitation especially in the middle of the afternoon, as well as more clouds in some points more exposed to the slightly wetter flow of the Northwest quadrantwith more open areas on the southern slopes, and in the following days with the expected evolution it could eventually become drier, with an easterly flow – continue to follow our daily forecasts HERE

We can see in the letter below, by the ECMWF model the evolution of precipitation hour by hour according to this model’s forecast

Rain on Quinta, Madeira

NEXT DAYS – WHAT TO EXPECT?

Early summer appeared in April, but in the end everything changed, and May also begins with cold and unstable weather

Are we still having winter weather? Yes, it’s a little like that! – temperatures are low, and are expected to remain so in the coming days, although already rising, with precipitation at least until the 4th-5th of May, especially in the North, with drier weather in the South

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You can see the FULL FORECAST FOR MAY HERE

Both highs and lows should be closer to winter normals plus 12 days

During the first week of May, stability should gradually returnbut in the period Until May 4-5, we will continue to feel the weather a little more reminiscent of Winter, with instability, cool weather, showers, possible thunderstorms and the likelihood of snowfall. Maybe it will be more stable later, but there is still no high confidence in this scenario, and even if the heat arrives, the most likely thing is to change again a few days later – monitoring

April wasn’t great at all, but it still brought us a surprise – the models were very good at predicting this change, which was driven by the final warming of the stratosphere, and temporarily “threw” us back to temperatures close to normal winter temperatures

In the Azores it is very likely that the weather will continue to be humid and rainy, with a southwesterly regime, as the anticyclone moves away towards Europe. Lots of rain at the beginning of May, so far with no clear sign for more lasting stability

In Madeira we expect humid weather, the possibility of some precipitation for a few more days… This pattern could last as long as the anticyclone does not recover, which is not expected for now.

The heatthis, however, He left and shouldn’t be coming back soon

Continue to follow all our forecasts to always stay up to date with all the changes that arise!

For In May, the outlook is a little warmer again on the Continent – right at the end of the first week, although still an uncertain prediction! – we’ll see how it evolves!

Weather on Thursday, May 2, 2024 - Weather changing to the afternoon...

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FINAL NOTES AND SOURCES USED FOR INFORMATION

UPDATES: For more updates and other predictionsinformation follow the Luso Meteo – Meteorology and Climate page on Facebook HERE

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