This week, the polar jet stream will trace large meanders (or ripples) at our latitude. The “summer heat” will come into force in mainland Portugal in the coming days, however the possibility of showers and thunderstorms is also on the horizon. Here’s the forecast.
It is Monday, May 6th was characterized by a meteorological situation of slightly cloudy or clear sky. Until the end of the morning there were some light showers that were quite dispersed throughout the territory of Continental Portugal. The wind blew from the northwest and there was a drop in minimum temperatures, particularly in the North and Center Regions. As for the archipelago of Wood registered partly cloudy sky and light wind from the East-Northeast.
Weather in Portugal at the weekend: several fronts, fed by an atmospheric river, will leave heavy rain in these regions
With regard to Azores this archipelago is covered in yellow warnings thanks to the prediction of occasionally heavy precipitation and potentially accompanied by thunderstorms. As of 12:30 pm today, all islands are under yellow warning. At the Western Group (Corvo and Flores) the warning is expected to last until 3pm tomorrow, Tuesday, May 7. At the Eastern Group (São Miguel and Santa Maria) should also end tomorrow, around 12:00.
About the Central Group (Faial, Pico, São Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira) – as mentioned by Meteored in the latest forecasts – expected to be the group of islands most buffeted, both in intensity and in the duration of the episode of abundant and stormy precipitation. The duration of the yellow warning is expected until 12:00 on Wednesday, May 8.
Temperatures rise tomorrow on the Continent and “shoot” to 30 ºC from Wednesday in these areas
Tomorrow – Tuesday, May 7th – expected slightly cloudy or clear sky. The wind will generally blow weak to moderate from the northeast, although in the afternoon it will blow from the northwest on the western coastal strip and from the southwest on the southern coast of the Algarve. It will blow occasionally strong in the highlands. A rise in maximum temperatures and a small drop in minimum temperatures are expected, which will result in a large temperature range and a marked cooling at night..
In these next few days – roughly between Tuesday (7) and Friday (10) – a sharp and widespread rise in maximum temperatures in mainland Portugal is expected, which will coincide precisely with the rise in latitude of an air-laden subtropical ridge hot and directly related to the radical change we predicted several days ago.
Between Wednesday (8) and Friday (10) the “peak” of this episode of hot weather will occur. The meteorological panorama on these days will generally consist of slightly cloudy or clear skies, with light wind from the east quadrant. As the movement of the flow coming from the East will be of low intensity, this will contribute to a reinforcement of stability associated with high pressure (subtropical ridge) and stable, warm weather with good periods of sunshine.
Despite the heat, some areas – mainly along the coast – will see temperatures drop on Thursday (9), rising again on Friday (10). Everything indicates that Wednesday (8) will be the hottest day in the coastal regions and Friday will be the hottest day in the interior regions.
During this three-day period, maximum temperatures are estimated to be close to or equal to 30 ºC in some areas of the Center-South of mainland Portugal – or even higher than this level locally – all generally located south of the Mondego. With regard to district capitals, the following stand out: Coimbra (27-29 ºC), Leiria (25-29 ºC), Santarém (29 ºC), Lisbon (23- 29 ºC), Setúbal (23-30 ºC), Évora (28-30 ºC) It is Beja (28-30 ºC).
Thermometers may reach 32/33 ºC in places in the Alentejo Interior and Eastern Algarve. In other cities, such as Castelo Branco, Portalegre and Faro temperatures will not be as extreme between some days, but they will also reach high values (26-28 ºC).
Portuguese dams with levels above average in April, but Algarve still on alert
We refer at maximum values that will be between 5 and 10 ºC above the average for this time of year in vast areas of the continent’s geographywhich will translate into a summer environment. In some regions, such as the Central, West and Alentejo Coastto the positive thermal anomalies will be even more pronounced (between 11 and 13 ºC), especially in Wednesday, the 8th.
Although, The From Friday afternoon (10) the wind will turn northwest, signaling possible changes for the weekend. Despite this, the uncertainty surrounding the forecast for weekend days – Saturday (11) and Sunday (12) – it’s hugeso it is not yet possible to come up with a concrete forecast, but with just a few features.
For the weekend, the possibility of changes coming from the Atlantic is envisaged
The maps reveal signs that this “Summer Heat” episode will have a short duration, as a very undulating polar jet stream can be seen. This prevents the warm, stable weather from remaining strong for more days. Like this, for the weekend of May 11th and 12th, the possibility of a new discharge of cold air arriving here from the Atlantic cannot be excluded.
If this happens, expect a drop in temperaturesaccompanied by a progressive instability in weather conditions that would be reflected in the spread of showers and thunderstorms in some regions, particularly those in interior. It is important to note that this type of precipitation (convective) It is very irregular in space and timeso there will certainly also be room for good periods of sunshine.
According to our reference model, in the long term the polar jet stream will remain undulating. Taking this into account, it is to be expected variable weather conditions, something quite typical of spring. In this final stage of spring – the month of May – convective precipitation begins to be predominant. Although it is more intense, it is also more irregular.
