Heat, but then DEPRESSION arrives with instability and THUNDERS!

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Instability, after the heat?!

Finally the anticyclone arrived, the weather stabilized, and the sun came out! Temperatures are already rising, and will continue until the 10th, before beginning a new decline. We will have temperatures well above average, and a rapid return to normality, and probably even below average!

These variations in May are relatively normalthis year, however, they are more extreme, going from temperatures well above normal to temperatures well below normal in a few days

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These variations This month, which is known as the “month of thunderstorms”, often translates into precisely that: Thunderstorms. However, meteorological models, both traditional and new models driven by Machine Learning, are still unable to define what could arise – with some of the models in the most recent updates predicting thunderstorms on the weekend of 11-12. to emerge, followed by the descent of a depression with an associated frontwho would isolate himself in the following days

Will this be what will happen? Taking into account the models that we use the most and take into account, yes, it is likely that instability will return around the 11th to the 13th of May – we’ll see how

Right a way find out in detail what we expect for each day – and know what to count on to plan your days – but before that, see the forecast of accumulated precipitation for the next 10 days using the GraphCast model (GoogleECMWF), where it is perfectly rain is visible, although it is uncertain where and with what intensity, yet

FIRST THE HEAT AND STABLE WEATHER – MAY 6 TO 10 – WHAT TEMPERATURES TO EXPECT?

Meteorological models even drew a scenario of intense and extreme heat for the seasonwith highs already close to 40ºC – and in this case the main “culprit” was the ECMWF, which constantly exaggerated this situation, models like GFS and ICON have never gone beyond 3234ºC and that’s exactly what we expect!

The highest temperatures are expected to be recorded in the Mondego, Tagus, Sado, Guadiana and Alentejo Valleys in general

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In the North, temperatures tend to be a little lower, especially on the coast – where they should not exceed 25ºC (there may be adjustments to be made to this forecast)

They are temperatures a little above the climate average for this time of year, but they are not at all abnormal!

Between the 7th and 10th we expect dry weather, with only occasional mediumhigh cloudsbut with lots of sun

As we said in our weekly forecast, these days will practically be summer!

The nights will also be very mild, with Minimum temperatures between 14 and 20ºC in general!

FWe are left with the idea that summer is finally approaching and that is why the weather is also starting to show these signs – however it is all still very temporary, the anticyclone has not yet recoveredand it is very mobile – clearly reminiscent of 2018 – a year in which the most serious Summer only appeared in August (And in what way…)

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This obviously doesn’t mean that this year will happen again, it’s not even what we predict for now, but, for May, and as also predicted in our monthly forecast, we expect this type of variations…

In the image below we can see, as an example, the maximum forecast for the 9th, using the ARPEGE model – one of the most reliable!

INSTABILITY ON THE WEEKEND OF MAY 1112?

It’s not at all a certainty! However, several meteorological models suggest so!

A little pocket of cold air can break away from the jet stream and make the atmosphere unstable and with conditions for the formation of convective clouds, which could lead to thunderstorms, showers, and perhaps hail as early as Saturday, May 11

AIML models like GraphCast suggest this scenario, and others we trust are also starting to see the same

Already on Sunday, the 12th, there is even more uncertainty, but several of the weather models in the 12Z update, on the date of writing this forecast (May 6th) seem to show a depression plunging over mainland Portugal, causing temperatures to plummet, and the rain returns, with thunderstorms

We will already be practically entering the second half of May, and therefore it would be exceptional if it snowed, even in Serra da Estrela, although not unprecedented – to follow!

Right now, with more than 50% probability the scenario of instability over the weekend, located especially in the North, and perhaps the Center of the country, begins to gain strength – we will be following!

You can see in the image below the pressure and geopotential chart using the ECMWF model for Sunday, May 12th – a new depression over Continental territory, once again with the anticyclone rising to the West, something that has been recurring, and which demonstrates the mobility that the anticyclone presents, with a very disturbed jet-stream!

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New depression on Sunday

AND THEN, THE FOLLOWING WEEK (MAY 13TH ONwards) HOW WILL IT BE?

Have you noticed that This year the rain has been mostly on the weekends, and over the week the weather tends to stabilize?

Well then, According to the probabilities we currently have, it is one of the predicted scenarios – after the 11th to 13th (Saturday to Monday) there will be showers and periods of rain, perhaps with thunderstorms, the anticyclone will probably push the depressions to the east, leading to drier weather again…

However the degree of uncertainty in the forecast is relatively high – with small movements easily changing this situation – and with forecast models finding it difficult to predict!

Even so This is our forecast, which we will maintain, updating if necessary over the next few days – and, of course, in greater detail, in the next weekly forecast published on May 11th

Before that, howeverit is likely that we will publish a special forecastinformation article, as on the 9th, Thursday, NOAA is expected to declare the end of El Niño, and we want to talk a little about that, and about what effects we expect on the evolution of El Niño Summer and Autumn, both globally and, particularly, regionally, for Portugal (Mainland and Islands) – stay tuned!

To illustrate this situation from May 13th onwards We leave the chart of the CFSv2 model – which shows us, on average, the descent of depressions close to the Iberian Peninsula – if instability were to materialise, it would be notable… However, it is just a prediction, and for now we consider instability at the end as likely -weekend and early next week (11th to 13th), but not as likely in the following days

Heat, but then DEPRESSION arrives with instability and THUNDERS! - Forecast from May 7th to 13th and more details!

AND SUMMER, WILL IT BE SO UNSTABLE AND WITHOUT MUCH HEAT?

Unfortunately, this is not what is presented by the models in seasonal forecasts.

Yesterday, May 5th, the European model forecast was updated and, unfortunately, it continues to predict a very hot scenario for mainland Portugal, the hottest in recent years

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The toThe anticyclone will have to stabilize one day, of course, and when it does, unfortunately, we will be under the influence of very hot air masses, with an ocean with less capacity to “temper” than in previous years (very high temperature), and also with strong Atlantic convection (La Niña likely = very active hurricane season)

All this leads us to believe that This summer could be one of the hottest, or even the hottest ever recorded in Portugal, particularly between July and September – June may be more moderate, and still somewhat unstable

Let us therefore take advantage of this period of instability and some coolness to prepare for very high temperatures throughout the summer, in this 2024, which continues with record temperatures (So far around 1.6ºC above the pre-industrial era in the last 12 months…)

And since we talked about ARE HURRICANES LIKELY IN PORTUGAL?

Despite global warming and all the changes, For now, they are not very likely yet! The waters still do not allow tropical formations at our latitude (let alone subtropical formations a little to the south)

Nhowever, they increasingly support formations further north, or “hold on” more easily in curves to the north, depending on the anticyclone…

In other words, basically, what this means is that if the anticyclone “relaxes” a little and is slightly weakened at the end of summer (SeptemberOctober) the visit of a tropical cyclone becomes much more likely than it was – but still, with a low probability on the Continent – highest, always, in the Azores, where the risk of impact from a tropical cyclone this year is much higher!

I remember that the The list of tropical cyclones is repeated every 6 years, and therefore, this year, we will once again have the name “Leslie” on the list of possible cyclones, which unfortunately affected us 6 years ago, in 2018 – let’s hope it’s not a bad one. omen

ECMWF forecast, temperature anomaly for summer – intense heat for Portugal likely!

Heat, but then DEPRESSION arrives with instability and THUNDERS! - Forecast from May 7th to 13th and more details!

FINAL NOTES AND SOURCES USED FOR INFORMATION

UPDATES: For more updates and other predictionsinformation follow the Luso Meteo – Meteorology and Climate page on Facebook HERE

May also follow on TwitterX HERE and on Google News HERE

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