Incredible: Frankfurt may need to lose to go to the Champions League

Possible scenario if Dortmund wins the final and finishes fifth in the Bundesliga

The next edition of the Champions League could feature six German teams if Dortmund, the first finalist in the competition this season, lifts the trophy on June 1st. The team most interested in this victory will be Frankfurt, which currently occupies sixth place in the Bundesliga and could compete in the Champions League under these circumstances. However, for this to happen, Frankfurt may even have to… lose a game in the German league. How can this scenario be possible? We will explain.

New Champions League format

The format of the Champions League will undergo changes from next season, starting with the number of teams participating. If until this year 32 teams were competing for the title, from 2024/2025 this number increases to 36. The four additional places will be occupied according to different criteria, one of which is called European Performance Spots, places related to European performance.

Very succinctly, this criterion guarantees two places to the two associations (leagues) whose clubs have the best European performance in the previous season’s European competitions. Now, this season, these two places have already been allocated to the Bundesliga and Serie A, which means that, guaranteed, Germany and Italy will have five teams in the next Champions League instead of the usual four.

Frankfurt cheering for Dortmund to win

Today, Dortmund is fifth in the Bundesliga, with 60 points, behind Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Stuttgart and Leipzig. Taking into account the criteria explained in the previous paragraph, although Dortmund, under normal circumstances, would not be able to guarantee Champions League football in 2024/2025, thanks to the new qualification criteria, they already have that place guaranteed if they finish in fifth place. And this is where the situation becomes curious.

If Dortmund wins the Champions League final, they will qualify for the next edition of the million-dollar competition with the place allocated to the champion, which means that the place that would be allocated to them with the new criteria, as they are in fifth place in the Bundesliga, would go to the club that appears next in the Bundesliga league table which, in this case, would be Frankfurt, which occupies sixth place with 45 points.

This is how the next edition of the Champions League could feature six German teams: four places for the teams that occupy the top four positions in the Bundesliga (as is usual), one place for the winner of the Champions League (if Dortmund wins) and a place for fifth place (assigned by the new criteria) which, as it is occupied by the eventual winner of the millionaire league, would move to sixth place in the German league.

Auri-negros beat PSG, at Parque dos Príncipes, 1-0 and secured the first place in the final at Wembley

Why Frankfurt must lose

This scenario of six German teams in the next Champions League will not be possible if Bayern qualifies and wins the final, as they already have qualification guaranteed through the Bundesliga. When the winner of the Champions League has already qualified through the championship, the extra place is awarded to a champion from a minor European league who does not have direct access to the group stage of the competition.

Likewise, if Dortmund climbs into the top four places in the Bundesliga league table, they will be guaranteed qualification through the Bundesliga, which means that if they win the Champions League and finish at least fourth in the German league, the extra place it would again be awarded to a champion of a minor European league. Frankfurt fans will be rooting for Dortmund to win in the Champions League final and hope that the yellow and black remain in fifth place in the championship.

Now, the problem is that Frankfurt will play against Leipzig in the 34th round of the Bundesliga and, if they emerge victorious in the match, they risk Dortmund moving up to fourth place. With Leipzig in fifth, the place resulting from the European Performance Spots goes to the Red Bull team, leaving Frankfurt without access to the Champions League.