Indiana women’s basketball vs Fairfield prediction in March Madness

BLOOMINGTON — IU women’s basketball officially received its draw for the 2024 NCAA tournament on Sunday, and it was a mixed bag for the Hoosiers.

The good news? Despite a tumble in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals, the Hoosiers are hosting the first and second rounds as a No. 4 seed.

The bad news? Its first-round opponent is ranked. The 13th-seeded and No. 25 (AP) Fairfield Stags will be coming to Bloomington this weekend with an upset on their minds.

Here’s what you need to know:

About Fairfield

Location: Fairfield, Conn.

Conference: Metro Atlantic Athletic

Record: 31-1

Ranking: No. 25 (AP), RV (USA Today)

Coach: Carly Thibault-DuDonis (second season)

Top scorers: Meghan Andersen (15.2 points, 5.3 rebounds), Janelle Brown (13.6 points, 4.3 rebounds), Kaety L’Amoreaux (10.3 points, 4.1 rebounds)

Stags have a Big Ten win this season

Fairfield doesn’t back down from Power Five play.

The Stags collected a convincing road win over Rutgers, 78-54, in Piscataway during the nonconference season in November. Fairfield had 11 steals and forced 24 turnovers during that game, scoring 29 points off those TOs.

It was one of two Power Five teams Fairfield played during the nonconference season — the other was Vanderbilt, which handed the Stags their only loss of the season in November.

Carly Thibault-DuDonis has national championship experience (and basketball in her blood)

Fairfield’s coach, Carly Thibault-DuDonis, may have a familiar last name.

That’s because both her father and brother are coaching veterans in the WNBA. Her father, Mike Thibault, was a three-time WNBA Coach of the Year with the Connecticut Sun and a WNBA champion with the Washington Mystics. Her brother, Eric Thibault, currently coaches the Mystics.

Thibault-DuDonis was an assistant coach as Mississippi State during the Bulldogs’ back-to-back national championship appearances in 2017 and ’18, and she coached Victoria Vivians, the Indiana Fever’s No. 8 pick in the 2018 WNBA draft, during that time .

As an assistant and associate head coach at Minnesota from 2018-22, she has also worked with current Indiana guard Sara Scalia. Thibault-DuDonis was also the interim head coach for the Gophers for a period in 2022.

Thibault-DuDonis took the head coaching gig at Fairfield ahead of the 2022-23 season, compiling a 46-16 record during that time. The Stags went 15-15 in 2022-23.

Prediction: IU 74, Fairfield 72

This was about the toughest 13-seed IU could have drawn for the first round of the tournament. The Stags are tough; they are one of three non-Power 6 teams that are ranked in the top 25, and they have proven themselves to be a formidable opponent, even on the road.

The difference here will likely be IU’s fanbase. While Fairfield can win on the road, it hasn’t been in the raucous environment that Assembly Hall can become — the Stags’ win over the Scarlet Knights only had 1,309 fans in attendance.

Pair that with Mackenzie Holmes’ likely return to the lineup and IU’s chip on its shoulder from last season, the Hoosiers will likely find a way to pull off this victory by the slimmest of margins.