Good morning, foreign exchange market! Cash closed yesterday at R$4.9741 for sale, according to operators at the Getmoney desk. After passing R$5.00, many positions that had a sales trigger at this level were activated and dismantled positions making a profit. Exporters also positioned themselves to sell and bring down the price of the North American currency. At the day’s low, the dollar reached R$4.9373.
The war in Ukraine is escalating and yesterday was the third day of Russian bombings in the last five days. Gold, which is little talked about here, closed yesterday on a rise justified by the increase in gold reserves held by Central Banks around the world.
Here, a study by a broker shows that the goal of zero fiscal deficit depends on new budgetary blockages totaling around R$21 billion and an additional revenue of R$35 billion. Now it’s time to see where they’re going to get it from. If they approve the quota, they may even be able to do it, but if they don’t approve it, they will have to increase the revenue in some way. The latest numbers surprised upwards, let’s follow. This better work out, because if it doesn’t, there will be disbelief in the tax authorities and this could seriously affect the exchange rate.
The market today should react to the Copom Minutes. After the removal of the plural in the statement, we will see if clues emerge about the future of monetary policy and the pace of Selic cuts — currently at 10.75% per year. The IPCA-15, which is an important inflation index, will also be closely monitored.
To follow today’s economic calendar, we will have consumer confidence figures for March in the US. In the Euro Zone, statement by Lane, from the ECB. And here in Brazil, as already said above, the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank and the IPCA-15 of March will be published.
Good business to everyone and lots of profit.
