The stock market opened lower today, but erased losses in the early afternoon with gains mainly from the financial and real estate sectors. Earlier, the Copom minutes and previous inflation data from March caught the market’s attention.
Thus, around 12:55 pm this Tuesday (26), the Ibovespa rose 0.12%, 127,086.70 pointsreversing, for now, the previous day’s losses.
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In this sense, Banco BTG Pactual rose 1.06%, Bradesco rose 0.79%, BB advanced 0.74% and Itaú gained 0.50%. The IFNC, a financial sector index, had gains of 0.79%.
Dolar today
Simultaneously, the dollar operated higher against the real, rising 0.30%, to R$ 4.9911.
On the other hand, on the international scene, the dollar fell.
The DXY, which measures the performance of the United States currency against other major currencies, fell 0.20%, to 104.26 points.
Copom minutes movement on the stock exchange today
The Copom minutes had a negative impact on the stock exchange today. This is because the monetary authority withdrew the prospect of continued cuts in the Selic rate automatically, marking the end of the forward guidance.
“The Committee realizes the need to maintain a still contractionary monetary policy for the relevant horizon in order to consolidate the convergence of inflation towards the target and the anchoring of expectations”, said the BC in paragraph 25 of the minutes.
In the view of economist André Perfeito, the BC board got it right.
“Even seeing that there is no change to the base scenario, it felt good to initiate the end of the instrument given the increase in volatility”.
Some of the main points of attention, according to Perfeito, are the perception of current and future inflation and consumer prices, which, despite being on a disinflation trajectory, contain nuances that could hinder the drop in interest rates.
“There is uncertainty about the speed of disinflation, especially due to inflationary pressures in services and global uncertainties”, adds Perfeito.
IPCA-15
March’s IPCA-15 came in above consensus, rising 0.36% against expectations of 0.32%. This also contributes to crashing the stock market earlier today.
For Nicolas Borsoi, chief economist at Nova Futura Investimentos, “the (inflationary) opening remains bad”.
This is because, on the annualized three-month average, underlying services accelerated to 5.8%. Furthermore, food prices accelerated to 5.4%.
“Despite the improvement in the core average at the margin, the three-month average also worsened, reaching 3.6%, the highest in five months”, highlights Borsoi.
Focus
The good news was the continued improvement in GDP projections. The Focus Bulletin released this Tuesday projects growth of 1.85% in 2024. A week ago, the projection was 1.8%.
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