The release of the Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI) for March, followed by the interview with the president of the BC, Roberto Campos Neto, focuses attention on this last business day of the month and the first quarter for the markets. Another highlight is the Continuous Pnad for the quarter until February. In the US, the final quarterly GDP and PCE data are out, in addition to the University of Michigan survey on consumer confidence and inflation expectations.
Exterior
American markets are waiting for the release of final US quarterly GDP data, in addition to the University of Michigan survey on consumer confidence. The movement still reflects expectations for the Fed’s preferred inflation index, the monthly PCE, tomorrow, in addition to the speech by Fed President Jerome Powell. Everything will be closely monitored by investors, who are looking for signs about the start of interest rate cuts in the US. Last night, US central bank director Christopher Waller said he was in no rush to start cutting interest rates, and that he wanted to see at least two more months of data to assess whether the time had come.
Treasury yields and the dollar against other strong currencies rise in the wake of Waller’s speech, while most stock index futures decline marginally. The pound is still feeling confirmation that the UK went into recession at the end of last year. Despite this, the unexpected drop in sales in the German retail sector in February and the 65% drop in Casino shares, European stock markets mostly rose, extending yesterday’s gains, in the last trading session of the week before the Friday holiday. – Holy Friday.
Brazil
The negative bias of future stock indices in New York and another 0.85% drop in iron ore in Dalian, China, could penalize the Ibovespa. On the other hand, the rise in oil prices could mitigate a possible decline in the Bovespa Index, but without the strength to prevent a devaluation in the first quarter. Until yesterday, this drop was 3.04% in the quarter and 1.03% in March.
At the same time, the investor evaluates several company balance sheets for the fourth quarter. In terms of exchange, the strong dollar abroad could weigh heavily on the day when the last Ptax of the month is still being formed. At the same time, the rise in Treasury yields tends to influence future interest rates, which are still monitoring possible signals in the RTI and Campos Neto about the terminal Selic. This is because the debate has increased about the possibility of a higher basic interest rate at the end of the cycle.
Yesterday after the strong Caged in February, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said that he hopes that the Central Bank will not be alarmed by the number of jobs created in Brazil, in reference to a possible change in the course of monetary easing carried out by the authority. The markets are still evaluating the news that the government yesterday formalized its proposals to reduce Perse and tax relief on municipal payrolls, according to Valor.
*State Agency
