- The movements of Central Banks played a crucial role in the appreciation of gold and silver prices last week.
- With gold futures reaching unprecedented heights, investors are watching for a possible correction, driven by data from and .
- At the same time, silver remains stable, close to a significant resistance level.
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Last Thursday, it registered new records, with the June contract surpassing US$2,200 per ounce, reaching a peak of US$2,233 per ounce.
Currently, the threshold for an interest rate cut in June is 62%. A postponement of this adjustment until the third quarter, or a reduction in the number of cuts planned, could trigger a correction in gold and silver prices.
Gold, after a continuous rise, finds itself susceptible to a pullback towards its key support levels. With the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting, the market’s focus will turn to the next macroeconomic indicators.
Today, the market learned the US GDP growth figures. If this data reaffirms preliminary estimates, it is likely that we will see a sharp decline in relation to previous quarters.
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There are still no concrete signs of a recession in the American economy, maintaining the base scenario of a soft landing, a scenario that is favorable to Federal Reserve officials.
On Friday, attention will turn to the PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. Current market consensus suggests a slowdown in disinflation to 2.8% per year, aligning with the stability of the main inflation index to the consumer.
If the final readings are in line with projections, the Federal Reserve may have room to delay interest rate cuts.
Gold Technical Outlook
Gold prices, despite two minor corrections, maintain an upward trajectory, envisioning historic highs. However, upcoming US economic data could change this trend.
A rise in PCE and GDP inflation rates could grant sellers temporary dominance of the market.
In this scenario, sellers are likely to target support around US$2150 per ounce, a level already tested previously.
In the medium to long term, sharper corrections to approximately US$2100 per ounce could represent attractive buying opportunities.
Consolidation of Prices
After a period of appreciation, silver prices have stagnated around $26 per ounce, a level that proves challenging resistance. This level also represents the culmination of a long period of consolidation.
With prices expected to remain consolidated and the US dollar rising, bears are targeting the $22 per ounce range. A break of this level could take prices to the next area of robust support at $20 per ounce.
Conversely, significantly weak US economic data could push buyers to target the $28 per ounce region.
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Disclaimer: this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any offer or investment recommendation.
