The commercial dollar closed up 0.73%, at 5.0154 reais. This Thursday, the 28th, the last business day of the month, investors sought safety in the American currency amid a global scenario of greater risk aversion, analysts say. In March, the dollar advanced 0.86% against the real. Year to date, the increase is 3.34%.
“I’m worried about the fact that the exchange rate has returned to working at the level of 5 reais after having spent the year below 4.90 reais. I believe that more hawkish statements [menos inclinada ao corte de juros] from one of the Fed directors and a less optimistic BC [com a inflação] here have had an influence”, says Eric Hatisuka, investment director at Mirabaud Brasil.
Yesterday, Fed director Christopher Waller stated that he is not ready and sees no urgency in cutting interest rates in the United States, reinforcing that at least two more months of economic data are needed to reach a verdict on the beginning of the monetary easing cycle. . Today, the final GDP reading confirmed that the US economy remains strong, with growth of 3.4% in the fourth quarter, above the consensus of 3.2%.
Despite the Easter holiday that will keep stock exchanges closed, the agenda for Friday, the 29th, has events that could offer more clues about the trajectory of interest rates in the USA: release of the PCE (inflation index most watched by the Fed) for February and then a speech by Jerome Powell, president of the American Central Bank.
Europe and Brazil
According to Cristiane Quartaroli, economist at Ouribank, another factor that contributes to a generalized environment of risk aversion is the battery of data that indicates weaker economic activity in Europe. Among indicators, retail sales in Germany fell 1.9% in February compared to January, above expectations. In the United Kingdom, GDP figures confirmed that the country entered recession in 2023, with a contraction of 0.3% in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.
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“In Brazil, another issue that may be contributing to risk aversion is inflation, which has been higher than expected”, says Quartaroli. Released on Tuesday, the IPCA-15 registered an increase of 0.36% in March — below the 0.78% recorded in February, but above the median expectations of 0.3% of analysts consulted by Bloomberg. More persistent inflation has made the Central Bank adopt a more cautious stance in its conduct of monetary policy. At the last Copom meeting, the institution changed its guidance (forecast of future movements): indicated maintenance of the rate cut rate for “the next meeting” and no longer for “the next ones”. Even so, the Central Bank kept its inflation projections for 2024, 2025 and 2026 unchanged in its Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI), released this morning.
