The dollar abandoned initial losses and began to rise against the real this Monday, amid low global liquidity and expectations for data from the United States, even though investors reacted positively to North American inflation data and activity figures from China.
At 9:56 am (Brasília time), the dollar in cash rose 0.5%, to R$5.0413 on sale. On B3, the first-month dollar futures contract rose 0.23%, to 5.0485 points.
“Today we should still see a resilient dollar, mainly affected by low liquidity, since it is a holiday in European markets, in addition to there being readjustments in the post-holiday market here in Brazil and expectations for the release of the North American PMI”, said Márcio Riauba, StoneX operations desk manager.
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In the last session, the dollar in cash closed the day at R$5.0156 on sale, up 0.70%. According to market participants, the recent surpassing of the relevant technical level of 5 reais may have attracted a new wave of dollar purchases.
At the same time, investors were awaiting the release of the United States Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, scheduled for 10:45 am this Monday. Some apprehension was also beginning to appear among operators before the publication of an important US government jobs report on Friday.
Still, the climate was relatively calm in the international market. “Inflation data and the speech by Fed President Jerome Powell do not appear to have changed investors’ perception that the authority will cut interest rates in the middle of the year,” Bradesco’s research and economic studies department said in a report.
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US Commerce Department data from late last week – released as much of global markets were closed for Good Friday – showed that the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3 % in February. Economists expected an increase of 0.4%, according to a Reuters poll.
In the wake of the numbers, Powell, Fed chair, said that the reading is “in line with what we would like to see”, although he once again warned that the central bank will not overreact to the information it receives – an indication of maintaining its stance caution from US authorities.
Meanwhile, China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March, coming in above expectations, with business confidence hitting an 11-month high, a private Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey showed. in this Monday.
According to Nicolas Borsoi, chief economist at Nova Futura Investimentos, the Chinese data increased “optimism with the turn of the global growth cycle”.
