At the same time that they are a concern for processors, the recent records in the price of cocoa on the New York Stock Exchange could represent a window of opportunity to expand cultivation in Brazil, according to analysts. Yesterday, contracts expiring in May, the most traded on the exchange, reached, for the first time in history, US$ 10,120 per ton, an increase of 3.62% compared to the previous closing.
For Ricardo Gomes, president of the Southern Bahia Regional Development Agency, a ton of cocoa worth more than US$ 10,000 can stimulate the conversion of pasture areas into agroforestry production systems, going beyond the limits of regions that already produce almonds. “It’s happening in western Bahia,” notes Gomes.
He assesses that cocoa could rise even further in the short term. One of the reasons, according to Gomes, is that trading companies that bought cocoa to sell in the future have signaled that they are unable to fulfill the contracts. “I consider that it could reach up to US$ 12 thousand per ton if the consumer market does not regress”he states.
Even amid record prices, demand will not be affected in the medium term, in the view of independent analyst Adilson Reis.
“Large chocolatiers are already stocked up for 2024, as they anticipated this rise in cocoa to form stocks. This allows them to sell without a major impact on the final price, thus ensuring continuity of demand.”it says.
Another reflection of the rise in cocoa in the futures market is that it is becoming unfeasible to pay premiums for a quality product. “I don’t know anyone who is doing this. [prêmio] in the world and going much higher than what is established for commodity cocoa”, says Ricardo Gomes.
The price of commodity cocoa approached R$800 yesterday in Bahia, a record. Four months ago, fine cocoa was traded at R$640 per arroba in the region.
