Internally, the attention is on the Focus bulletin by the Central Bank (BC), which is also holding an additional exchange rate swap auction – the first intervention since December 2022. Minister Fernando Haddad participates in the Bradesco BBI event. Abroad, there are events with the participation of four Fed directors. Jolts employment data and orders for US industry will also be reported.
Exterior
The mood is cautious in New York, where stock index futures drop slightly and Treasury yields rise to highs, after retreating earlier. The dollar is now trying to strengthen. Yesterday, T-Notes rose vigorously in reaction to signs of recovery in US manufacturing, which suggested high interest rates in the country for longer than imagined. Now, investors await more data from the American economy and comments from a series of Fed officials, amid doubts about when the US Central Bank will be able to start reducing its rates.
Amid a scenario of strong activity in the US and still high inflation, oil deserves attention. The commodity rises almost 2%, still reacting to worsening tensions in the Middle East and Russia and Ukraine. Some European stock markets are advancing, following the return of the extended Easter holiday. There, investors monitor a series of economic data from the region in search of signs of when the first interest cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) might come.
Brazil
The cautious situation in the US this morning could contaminate domestic assets, even though yesterday they already succumbed to the risk aversion environment in New York. This is because doubts have grown regarding the American monetary easing cycle. However, the rise of almost 2% in oil and 3.09% in iron ore in Dalian, China, tends to limit any possible fall in the Ibovespa in New York. The ADRs of Vale, Petrobrás and some banks rise in the American pre-market. The appreciation of commodities can still strengthen the real, but a strong dollar abroad is a risk.
Furthermore, the market will closely follow the additional auction of up to US$ 1 billion (20 thousand contracts) in foreign exchange swaps, announced yesterday by the Central Bank and scheduled for 12:30 pm. This is the first time since December 2022 that the BC intervenes in the exchange rate. According to the authority, the operation is justified due to the “demand for exchange rate instruments resulting from the effects of the redemption of NTN-A3 (National Treasury Note, subseries A3) on 4/15/2024. In interest rates, upward pressure on Treasuries tends to influence rates. The markets are still monitoring Minister Fernando Haddad’s participation in an event in São Paulo.
*State Agency
