O Ibovespa opened trading on Wednesday (24) with a positive bias, finding some support in the effect of the rise in iron ore in China on Vale’s shares, which reports its first quarter results at the end of the day.
At 10:04, the index rose 0.14%, to 125,318.71 points. The Ibovespa futures contract with a shorter maturity, on June 12, showed an increase of 0.12%.
Already the dollar started to rise against the real, with investors momentarily stopping sales after a series of three consecutive falls in the US currency, as expectations continued to focus on inflation data from the United States.
The spot currency rose 0.44%, to R$5.1512 on sale. On B3, the first-month dollar futures contract advanced 0.23%, to R$5.150 on sale.
“I think that yesterday we saw a profit-taking scenario, which we have been seeing for a few days, and now we really have to wait for the next data and see what signs they show regarding this issue of there being two cuts, or not, interest rates in the US”, said Thiago Avallone, foreign exchange specialist at Manchester Investimentos.
The day before, the spot dollar closed the day at R$5.1285 on sale, down 0.80%. In three business days, the currency accumulated a drop of 2.33%, reversing only part of the strong gains recorded earlier this month, amid the repricing of interest cuts by the Federal Reserve and domestic fiscal risks.
Operators, who between the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 came to bet on up to 1.50 percentage points of monetary easing in the USA throughout this year, currently price only two cuts of 0.25 points.
Higher interest rates in the US are, in general, beneficial for the dollar, as they make Treasury yields more attractive, attracting investors to the North American markets.
Now, expectations are for the release of data on the PCE inflation index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite, on Friday, and, before that, data on the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter, on Thursday.
In Brazil, investors continued to keep an eye on the outlook for monetary policy, as the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, warned that increased uncertainty could lead to a slowdown in the pace of monetary easing. This led to an increase in market projections for the Selic level at the end of this year.
A slower pace of monetary easing in Brazil, in theory, would be positive for the real by better preserving the profitability of the fixed income market, but this positive aspect could be offset by the high fiscal risk that helped to cause this repricing of interest rates in Brazil. first place.
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