The commercial dollar closed up 0.35%, quoted at R$5.1487, after three consecutive days of decline. During the session, the currency reflected the appreciation of US treasury bonds — treasuries. The domestic fiscal issue and PCE inflation in the United States, on Friday (26), remain on investors’ radar.
Trends in the foreign exchange market
The external scenario had a decisive influence on the exchange rate, despite concerns about the domestic fiscal framework. Robust U.S. durable goods orders data for March beat expectations, offsetting softer readings from S&P Global PMIs in April. This data strengthened expectations of a more moderate reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve this year.
Performance of the dollar and the real
With a high in the morning reaching R$5.1718, the spot dollar closed the day up 0.35%, quoted at R$5.1482. During the week, the currency accumulated a slight drop of 0.98%, but registered an appreciation of 2.65% in the month of April.
The real performed better compared to other emerging currencies, such as the Mexican and Colombian pesos, and the South African rand. Highlight is the recovery of the Chilean peso, driven by the increase in copper prices throughout April.
Flavio Serrano, chief economist at Bmg bank, assessed that treasuries impact the rise of the dollar because they reflect global concern about the beginning of interest rate easing in the United States.
“The dollar is strengthening against several currencies, especially emerging ones, and Mexico is suffering even more.”
Political context
Meanwhile, in Brasília, attention turns to the economic agenda, with emphasis on sending the tax reform to Congress and the processing of proposals that could imply an increase in spending. Arthur Lira, president of the Chamber, indicated that the Quinquênio PEC, with a significant impact on public coffers, has no chance of prospering in the House.
*With information from the CMA Agency
