Dollar falls on light Treasuries, strong commodities ahead of US GDP

The dollar operates lower in the spot market, in tune with the devaluation abroad amid increases in iron ore, oil and intermediate and long interest rates on Treasuries. The adjustments are very moderate amid expectations for the publication of the first reading of the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and PCE inflation data for the first quarter this Thursday morning. Future interest rates also adopt a positive bias with an eye on the dollar and the Treasury curve.

The North American data should help the market in recalibrating easing expectations, before the main indicator expected for the week, the March PCE, tomorrow, when the IPCA-15 also comes out in Brazil. The sum of American indicators should guide the Fed’s monetary decision next Wednesday, May 1st, when Labor Day will be a holiday in Brazil.

On the internal agenda, today’s focus will be on the Ministry of Finance’s press conference to detail the first bill of complementary tax reform laws, at 10 am. Also highlighted is the Petrobras shareholders meeting, at 1 pm.

The meeting must elect a new Board of Directors and approve the proposal to pay 50% of the extraordinary dividends for 2023 by the state-owned company. Furthermore, the focus will be on the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, at the opening of the G20 TechSprint 2024 (10 am), and on the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, at the Tax Law Congress, in São Paulo (5 pm).

Earlier, the Construction Confidence Index (ICST) fell 1.4 points in April, to 95.2 points, reported Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). The National Construction Cost Index (INCC-M) accelerated from 0.24% to 0.41% from March to April. As a result, the indicator accumulates an increase of 3.48% in the last 12 months.

At 9:21 am, the spot dollar fell 0.25%, to R$5.1354. The dollar for May lost 0.38%, to R$5.1365.