The dollar closed down 0.89%, quoted at R$5.11, with a significant drop in the national exchange market — approaching the value of R$5.10. This movement was influenced by the result of the price-to-spend index (PCE) in the USA, which was within expectations for March. This caused a slight drop in long Treasuries rates, opening space for the recovery of emerging currencies.
In an interview with Estadão, the chief economist at Armor Capital, Andrea Damico, highlighted that the picture is still of a strong dollar in the world, with significant influence from the external scenario, mainly in relation to the interest rate cut decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed ).
Interest cuts
Here in Brazil, the April IPCA-15 reading does not rule out the possibility of the Central Bank reducing the rate of interest cuts. The objective would be to aim for a terminal rate close to 10%, due to the favorable external scenario. This suggests maintaining an attractive interest differential for investors.
After the PCE and its core increased 0.3% in March compared to February, the chances of the Fed promoting an interest rate cut in September increased, exceeding 60%, according to monitoring by the CME Group.
Real benefits from local factors
The real also appreciated, driven by local factors that reduced the perception of risk. The release of extraordinary dividends from Petrobras and the announcement by the President of the Chamber, Arthur Lira, regarding the PEC do Quinquênio contributed to this positive outlook.
Central Bank Intervention
The statements by the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, reiterating that there will be no intervention in the exchange rate to smooth the rise in the dollar, discouraged speculative movements around the American currency.
International scene
On the international scene, the DXY index showed some stability, reaching high values. Despite this, the dollar lost value in relation to the main emerging currencies, with the exception of the Chilean peso. The real has had a positive performance in recent days.
*With information from the CMA Agency
