Dollar starts the week in a good mood, raising appetite for risk

O dollar returns to operating at a slight low at the opening of the exchange market this Monday (29), trying to sustain the good mood of Friday (26).

Faced with a moderate appetite for risky assets in New York, Treasury yields are relieved, as is the dollar exchange ratewhich yields to rival peers and several emerging and commodity-linked currencies.

In a week with an interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed, the American central bank), on Wednesday, and releases of US labor market indicators, mainly the report payrollon Friday, investors reflected on the news that Chengdu, capital of the Chinese province of Sichuan, eliminated restrictions on home purchases.

However, weak data on Chinese industrial profit, which suffered an annual drop of 3.5% in March, limits a recovery in emerging currencies, including the real, as well as the falls in oil and 0.51% in iron ore in the market. Chinese.

Today is also the day before the last Ptax rate for April is set, and the rollover of futures contracts can already make the foreign exchange market more unstable, especially in the afternoon.

Eurozone

Abroad, the euro continues its rise against the American currency, after Germany’s consumer price index (CPI) rose less than predicted by analysts interviewed by FactSet. In Japan, the country’s financial authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, which had been depreciating sharply, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. The Japanese currency rebounded strongly in afternoon trading in Asia on Monday, after briefly touching a new 34-year low against the dollar, which surpassed the 160 yen barrier, amid reduced expectations that the BoJ will return to raise its basic interest rate in the short term.

Economic data in Brazil

Here, the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M) rose 0.31% in April, after falling 0.47% in March, and surpassed the ceiling of estimates collected by Projeções Broadcast, of 0.26%. The market median indicated an increase of 0.12% for the index. With this result, the IGP-M accumulated a drop of 3.04% in the last 12 months.

The Services Confidence Index (ICS) fell 1.0 points from March to April, in the seasonally adjusted series, to 94.8 points, FGV reported. In quarterly moving averages, the ICS fell 0.3 points.

Data from the central government are also expected this Monday (10:30 am), a lecture by the president of central bankRoberto Campos Neto, and Petrobras’ production and sales report for the first quarter, both after the markets closed.

Attention remains on the judgment in the Federal Supreme Court (STF) on the payroll tax exemption and on the processing of regulatory measures for tax reform in the Chamber, among others, such as Perse, in the Senate.

On Friday night, the Senate filed an appeal with the STF against the decision of Minister Cristiano Zanin, who responded to the government and suspended the payroll tax exemption for companies and city halls. In the appeal, Senate lawyers initially claim that Zanin’s monocratic decision, submitted to the plenary, does not comply with legal precepts and did not even listen to Congress and the Attorney General’s Office (PGR).

The rapporteur in the Senate of the bill that reformulates Perse, Daniella Ribeiro (PSD-PB), will include the correction for inflation in the R$15 billion cost of benefits until the end of 2026. The change in the text, anticipated by the senator at Political Broadcastshould increase the fiscal impact of tax incentives, in a setback for the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad.