Future interest rates closed on Monday with a slight drop. Before the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday (1st), the decline in the dollar and Treasury yields provided security for a moderate exposure to risk in the local curve, even with the negative domestic agenda today for the inflation and fiscal scenario. .
At closing, the Interbank Deposit (DI) contract rate for January 2025 was 10.160%, up from 10.190% in Friday’s adjustment, and the DI rate for January 2026 was 10.39%, up from 10. 44%. The DI for January 2027 projected a rate of 10.76% (10.80% in the previous adjustment) and the DI for January 2029, a rate of 11.30%, 11.34%.
Rates up to the intermediate stretch had already been declining for two consecutive sessions, but still the assessment of fixed income professionals is that there is fat in the curve, which justifies the closing of the curve this Monday. The exchange rate was better behaved, with the dollar fluctuating close to R$5.10, to close at R$5.1153 in the spot segment.
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In Treasuries, the 10-year T-note rate fell to 4.60% at the time above. In the middle of the afternoon, the pace of decline slowed down after the Treasury released the quarterly refinancing report, which reported on the need to borrow US$243 billion in the second quarter, an increase of US$41 billion compared to the previous quarter. which had been released in January. “Future interest rates fell slightly, extending Friday’s movement due to the benign IPCA-15, given the fall in Treasury yields and the weakening of the dollar, but awaiting Wednesday’s Fomc meeting”, summarized Alexsandro Nishimura , economist and partner at Nomos.
The local market will only be able to adjust to the Fed the following day, as B3 will be closed on Wednesday, the Labor Day holiday. For fixed income strategist at BGC Liquidez Daniel Leal, DIs may not be able to extend the relief on premiums until tomorrow, precisely due to the expectation of increased caution on the eve of the Fed meeting. “There may be upward pressure on the dollar and the DI, with the market buying protection. The tendency is for investors to become more caught up in the curve tomorrow”, he predicts.
With today’s focus on abroad, indicators here have taken a backseat. The Central Government’s accounts recorded a primary deficit in March of R$1.527 billion, well below the deficit of R$58.444 billion in February, but worse than market expectations, which pointed to a surplus of R$1.4 billion. In the search for revenue, the government is counting on the reformulation of Perse, whose bill should be voted on this week in the Senate. Another focus is the payroll tax relief, after the Senate filed an appeal with the Federal Supreme Court (STF) against Minister Cristiano Zanin’s decision to suspend sections of the law that extended payroll tax relief.
On the inflation side, the April IGP-M surprised, with an increase of 0.31%, well above the 0.12% rate indicated by the median estimate, after a fall of 0.47% in March. For the economist at LCA Consultores, Fábio Romão, the result does not change the prospect of a 0.50 point drop in the Selic in May, but should reinforce a more vigilant stance on the part of the Central Bank in June, endorsing the possibility of a reduction in the pace to 0.25 point.
