On Friday (03), US employment data (Payroll) caused a significant drop in the dollar, which ended the day at R$5.06, a reduction of 0.85%. This value represents the lowest level since April 9, when the currency was quoted at R$5.0067. During the week, the dollar accumulated a fall of 0.93%.
According to Diego Costa, Head of exchange for the north and northeast of B&T Câmbio, the Payroll disclosure in the United States encouraged investors seeking profitability.
“The numbers indicate that the American economy may be entering a more moderate pace of growth, which leaves room for the possibility of the Federal Reserve recalibrating its interest rate cut schedule. This change would potentially be positive for emerging markets”, says Costa.
With the prospect of lower interest rates in the future, investors feel more confident to seek higher returns on risky assets such as emerging market stocks and bonds, which would put downward pressure on stocks. dollar quotes.
Furthermore, during the week, the real also benefited from Moody’s positive assessment, with demand for the local currency increasing and resulting in an appreciation of 1.53% in relation to the currency. American dollar on Thursday (02).
Dollar: what is the trend for the American currency in May?
In April, the month closed with an increase of more than 3.6% in the value of the dollar. For Anilson Moretti, head of foreign exchange at HCI Invest and CFP financial planner at Planejar, the trend for May is for this appreciation to continue, especially after the market opened with a significant drop on the day of the news of the Fed maintaining the interest rate.
On Wednesday, the 1st, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, ruled out the possibility of raising interest rates, a thesis that was beginning to be aired by a minority wing of the market, and said that a drop in the basic rate was “probable” in 2024. Monitoring by the CME Group showed that the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September rose from just over 50% on Thursday to over 70% this Friday, which will certainly affect the dollar’s performance.
“In addition, we observe that the American market is rising, which could further strengthen the dollar. This will result in the devaluation of currencies of emerging countries such as Brazil, Mexico and others, due to the forecast of a drop in interest rates in the United States, which will probably only occur in September or October of this year”, points out Moretti.
In Brazil, the focus is still on fiscal uncertainties related to tax relief and the reduction in interest rates. This situation has led investors to withdraw their investments from the country, resulting in a significant negative foreign flow.
“Last week, we had a negative record for this year, with a negative balance of 11 million. We probably ended up with the highest negative level of foreign flow on the stock exchange. This is harmful to the Brazilian market and contributes to the dollar appreciation. I believe that we are currently at a favorable level for purchasing dollars, especially for importers and service providers who need to make payments abroad”, says Moretti.
What level should the American currency stay from now on?
According to André Fernandes, head of variable income and partner at A7 Capital, the uncertainties surrounding the fiscal scenario, together with the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates for longer due to more persistent inflation in the United States, suggest that the dollar should remain between 5.00 and 5.10 in 2024.
“The prospect of seeing the dollarr below 5.00 again depends on a possible reversal of the sales flow by foreign investors, who have already withdrawn more than R$30 billion from our stock market in 2024, in addition to major improvements in public accounts. Without these elements, it is unlikely that the dollar will fall below R$5.00 this year”, explains the analyst.
