SÃO PAULO, SP (FOLHAPRESS)
The dollar in cash opened at R$5.074, this Monday (6), a slight increase of 0.11% in sales. Last Friday (3), the North American currency closed at R$5.069.
This morning the dollar has been regaining momentum after falling sharply last week, with an eye on relatively mild weather abroad and with broad anticipation for the Central Bank’s Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting.
In Brazil, the market expectation is that the Copom, which will meet from this Tuesday (7), may slow down the pace of Selic cuts due to the high uncertainty.
“Depending on the results of the indicators that will be released next week, such as the interest rate in Brazil and inflation in Brazil and the United States, there may be a reduction in the intensity of fluctuations in the US currency”, says André Galhardo, consultant economical aspect of Remessa Online.
Last Friday (3), the dollar recorded another session of sharp decline and closed at R$5.069, a decline of 0.83%, after the release of a jobs report in the United States that showed job creation below than expected in April. The new numbers also boosted the Stock Exchange, which rose 1.09% and recovered 128 thousand points.
Last week, the American currency accumulated a decline of 0.91%, and the Ibovespa, an increase of 1.57%, at 128,516 points. As a backdrop, optimism about the future of American interest rates and the change in Brazil’s credit outlook by the risk agency Moody’s supported the Stock Exchange and put pressure on the dollar.
According to the US Department of Labor, the country’s economy added 175,000 jobs outside the agricultural sector last month. The forecast of economists consulted by Reuters was 243 thousand vacancies. March data, however, was revised upwards.
The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, remaining below 4% for the 27th consecutive month.
Salaries increased by 3.9% in the 12 months to April, after a rise of 4.1% in March. Wage growth in a range of 3.0% to 3.5% is considered consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
The new data showed that job creation slowed and wage gains also weakened, triggering a global slide in the US currency.
In the wake of the data released this Friday, traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve, the American central bank, will carry out its first interest rate cut in September, with part of the markets that only saw this movement starting in November, bringing forward their projections. .
Implied probabilities in interest rate futures now point to about 78% of a rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s mid-September meeting, up from 63% before the report.
Traders are also now projecting two 0.25 percentage point cuts by the Fed this year, compared with one expected before the data was released.
For economist Claudia Rodrigues, from C6 Bank, the new data still show points of pressure on inflation, despite the slowdown. She points out, as an example, that the pace of hiring in the last 12 months still shows a heated job market.
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