Ibovespa closes almost stable with the market waiting for balance sheets and BC; dollar has slightly risen

The Ibovespa closed almost stable this Monday (06), down 0.03%, at 128,465.69 points.

At its maximum, the indicator reached 129 thousand points. Braskem fell 14.62%, after Adnoc gave up its stake in the petrochemical company, while Petrobras was among the positive supports helped by the rise in oil prices abroad.

The performance comes after two consecutive increases in the Ibovespa, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 2%, and before a series of corporate balance sheets in Brazil this week, as well as the Central Bank’s monetary policy decision, which could bring signs of an eventual change in the Selic terminal rate.

Focus research released this Monday showed that economists consulted by the BC started to see higher interest rates at the end of 2024, with projections now including a cut of just 0.25 percentage points in the Selic this week.

Abroad, the macroeconomic agenda is weaker in the United States in the coming days, after centering attention last week, when the Federal Reserve signaled that it should keep interest rates at current levels for longer.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500, one of the benchmarks of the North American stock market, closed with an increase of 1.03%, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond was 4.4894%, up from 4.5% on Friday.

“If the week in the US holds a lean economic agenda, here there will be no shortage of themes that could move domestic markets,” said the Ágora Investimentos team, in a report sent to clients earlier.

Dollar

The dollar in cash closed slightly up 0.11%, at R$5.0749, with investors maintaining positions before the meeting of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which ends on Wednesday, on a day relatively positive for the currencies of commodity exporters abroad.

In May, the currency accumulated a drop of 2.27%, after the strong declines on Thursday and Friday.

In the two previous sessions, the dollar in cash went from a level close to R$ 5.20 to the range of R$ 5.06, with some market agents citing the removal of a certain “exaggeration” in prices after relief brought by the meeting of the Federal Reserve and US inflation data last week.

This Monday, the North American currency fluctuated within narrow margins, without the strength to reach lower levels or, on the contrary, get closer to R$5.10.

In the market, the assessment was that investors are now awaiting the Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, as there are doubts about what the cut in the Selic base rate will be – 25 basis points or 50 basis points.

Depending on the announcement and, mainly, on the BC’s assessment of the future of the Selic base rate, currently at 10.75% per year, the interest differential between Brazil and abroad could narrow, which would put pressure on the exchange rate.

Abroad, the day was favorable to the currencies of exporters of commodities or emerging markets, such as the Chilean peso and the Mexican peso, which also helped to maintain dollar prices in Brazil.

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