O Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) begins its two-day meeting to define the new Selic rate and the National Treasury auctions floating-rate securities. Among the balance sheets, highlights include the numbers of Carrefour Brasil, Telefônica Brasil, GPA and Prio. Abroad, the focus is on the speech by the president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank of the United States), Neel Kashkari, and on Walt Disney’s quarterly results.
Exterior
Renewed hopes of a cut in American interest rates this year and positive balance sheets stimulate stock indices, especially in Europe, on a day with an empty agenda of indicators. Encouraging quarterly results, including from banks UBS and UniCredit, boost risk appetite. In Zurich, UBS shares jumped around 9% earlier after the Swiss bank secured its first quarterly profit since taking control of Credit Suisse. UniCredit rose 3.3% in Milan, after the second largest Italian bank exceeded profit and revenue expectations. Still there, retail sales in the euro zone rose as expected in March, but orders to German industry suffered a greater drop than estimated.
Future indexes on the New York stock exchanges operate indefinitely and close to zero, after Wall Street accumulated gains for three consecutive sessions, while Treasury yields fell and the dollar advanced against strong currencies. The speech by the president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, is in focus.
Brazil
The uncertainty of future North American stock indices could hinder an upward adjustment of the Ibovespa, which yesterday closed slightly lower, in the range of 128 thousand points. However, the crop of quarterly balance sheets may provide some encouragement. Among the results were Itaú Unibanco and Rede D’Or, in addition to TIM. The fall in Treasury yields could instigate a decline in the dollar and call for a correction in future internal rates, after rising the day before due to fiscal uncertainty, in the face of federal aid to Rio Grande do Sul. Doubts should still permeate the markets.
Yesterday the Chamber approved the Legislative Decree Project (PDL) that declares a public calamity in the State and removes from the fiscal target the resources that will be used to recover the damage caused by the rains in the region. The text goes to the Senate for analysis. It is still too early to say whether the idea of a Proposed Amendment to the Constitution along the lines of the one used during Covid-19, which could set precedents for other entities, has been buried. But the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), has already shown opposition to the use of the maneuver by other States. Still, the matter could generate volatility mainly in the interest rate curve, which is still monitoring the start of the Copom meeting, amid several revisions by economic departments in the projections for the Selic, from a cut of half a point to 0.25 percentage points tomorrow, also due to fears of higher inflation ahead.
*State Agency
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