Exchange rate: Dollar closes in slight fall before Copom decision

The commercial dollar closed down 0.13%, quoted at R$5.07. The currency reflected, throughout the session, the cautious stance adopted by investors, who await the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank, scheduled for tomorrow, Wednesday (8).

For the head of Treasury at Travelex Bank, Marcos Weigt, “the cut in the Selic should be 0.25 percentage points (pp), but if it is 0.5 it could strengthen the dollar”.

Opposing forces on rates

Analysts highlight that the formation of the exchange rate was influenced by opposing forces. On the one hand, signs of control over public spending in Rio Grande do Sul favored the real. On the other hand, the strengthening of the dollar in the international market, due to stricter statements by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, put pressure on the American currency in the domestic market.

Future perspectives and uncertainties

In an interview with Estadão, Alfredo Menezes, from Armor Capital, the Central Bank could adopt a more aggressive stance in the next Copom meetings, opting for cuts of 0.25 points instead of a larger cut at this meeting. He highlights that even with a slight recent stability in the exchange rate, uncertainties persist, especially related to the environmental disaster in Rio Grande do Sul and its possible repercussions on the economy.

_{*With information from the CMA Agency}