ERSE defined an efficient price (which I freely translate as a “fair” price) for this week as a reduction of 2.5 cents/l for simple diesel and 2 cents for simple gasoline. Did the various brands follow this trend or adopt other strategies?
When checking my “real samples” I realized that, with a few exceptions, the various brands followed this trend.
As you know, prices change every week (or several times a week), and each station sets its own prices and the variation is huge between the North and South and the coast and interior of the country.
Despite this, I decided to make a weekly league table, after making the monthly TOP 10 for electricity and gas. So, every week I will make a comparison with the real prices of the various fuel brands to get an idea of how each brand constructs its prices.
My criteria are simple:
- Simple fuels (gasoline and diesel). These fuels are supposedly exactly the same in all brands (Hypermarkets and Premium). So I’m comparing the same product.
- The same posts. Since it was impossible to compare all gas stations in the country, I chose – after analyzing the behavior of several dozen gas stations over several weeks – a gas station that I consider representative of each brand. They are all in the same district (Lisbon) and in the same municipality. I will not disclose them so that there is no attempt by someone to try to falsify the results. And if I notice strange behavior, I will change the position.
- DGEG prices. I use as a basis for this “study” the prices updated on the “Fuel prices” page of the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology. Station owners are required by law to update prices on the page whenever they make changes. I compare prices on the same dates.
Prices for the week of May 6th to 12th
I’ve been comparing prices at the same gas stations (without them knowing) since the end of March.
The brands I am comparing are:
- GALP
- BP
- SHELL
- CEPSA
- REPSOL
- PRIO
- oz
- Intermarché
- Auchan
This week the real prices I checked (after the rises and falls predicted for Monday) were as follows.
Given these prices, my analysis is as follows:
According to ERSE (Efficient Price) forecast, diesel prices should fall by 2.5 cents this week (from €1,623 to €1,598).
The only brand that “performed” and dropped the same or more was Auchan. It dropped 3 cents this week.
All other brands dropped by just 2 cents per liter, or less than that.
BP, Cepsa and SHELL dropped 1.5 cents.
Prio only dropped 1 cent.
Galp, Repsol, OZ and Intermarché dropped 2 cents per liter.
You just need to know the prices at gas stations in your location and the day on which prices change (if they do). I realized that Intermarché only changes prices on Tuesday afternoon and Auchan makes the change on Sunday (the day before) at 11 pm. The rest change on Monday.
The difference between the most expensive and the cheapest, BP and Intermarché (after both drops), this week is 14 cents per liter.
IMPORTANT NOTE: In the case of simple fuels, if the consumer has a discount of 10 cents per liter with cards or coupons, they all end up having more or less the same price. Without discounts (those who don’t have them or don’t care) are wasting hundreds of euros a year by purchasing the most expensive brands.
With regard to gasoline prices, ERSE estimates that prices should drop by 2.1 cents per liter.
BP, Shel, Prio and Oz dropped more than suggested by ERSE. Some dropped 3 cents,
Galp, Repsol, Auchan and Intermarché lowered the predicted 2 cents.
In summary, these are my conclusions:
Galp, BP and Shell are always the most expensive brands. This week the difference in relation to the cheapest ones is 12.5 and 14 cents. If you have discounts of 10 cents, you will have to evaluate whether you are worth the difference.
The cheapest brands, both for diesel and gasoline, are the Auchan and Intermarché hypermarkets, and Cepsa. Prio has a different strategy price in relation to their additive, which is even cheaper than simple fuel. It can make a difference in these results.
Repsol and Oz follow “normal” ERSE prices.
Price evolution week by week
In these two graphs you can monitor the price behavior of each brand in relation to the competition. As you can see, the big ones mark each other up heavily, well above the average price.
The cheapest brands do exactly the same thing, with some variations in tenths, but with much lower values.
I can see that there are 3 championships that I will follow with maximum interest.
There are the big 3: Galp, BP and Shell, which are always the most expensive.
There are 3 brands in the middle of the table: Prio, Repsol and Oz, with “normal” prices.
There are 3 much cheaper brands: Auchan, Intermarché and Cepsa.
There are, obviously, more brands, but I will follow these in this first phase because I think they are the most relevant.
I remind you that my “experiences” are not sponsored by anyone and I am completely exempt in these analyses. With this information, do whatever you want. What I would like is that reading these articles encourages you to do your own math to manage your money intelligently. In all areas. In fuels too.
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