Bloomberg Línea — O Ibovespa (IBOV) retreats this Thursday (9) while the dollar advances, with investors reflecting the previous day’s Copom decision and a more “hawkish” statement from the Central Bank.
Although the 0.25 percentage point cut was expected by a large part of the market, a decision divided by a tight score – from five votes to four – was a surprise for many economists and managers.
The victorious wing, led by BC president Roberto Campos Neto and director Diogo Guillen, opposed the Copom members appointed by president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, such as Gabriel Galípolo and Paulo Picchetti.
Read more: Copom: economists see ‘hawkish’ statement and uncertainty about next steps
The divergence also opened room for different interpretations of the BC’s stance by the market. Most saw the general tone of the statement as hawkish (i.e., in favor of higher interest rates), which reflects the bias of most directors.
The interest rate curve should steepen this Thursday (9), with greater pressure on longer future interest rates, in order to reflect the committee’s division, according to analysts. Furthermore, a depreciation of the real may occur.
At around 10:20 am (Brasília time), the Ibovespa fell 1.44%, to 127,912 points, while the dollar rose 1.16%, to R$5.15. The session was also a fall for Petrobras shares (PETR3; PETR4).
Investors are now awaiting April inflation data measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) which will be released tomorrow (10).
Concerns about greater price pressure are also growing amid the tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul, whose 425 of its 497 municipalities have reported problems related to the storm. Around 1.5 million people were affected.
In the balance sheet harvest, the Bank of Brazil (BBAS3) showed a drop in profit and profitability in the first three months of 2024, compared to the fourth quarter.
The balance, released last night (8), also revealed the negative impact of exposure to the Argentine market, following the strong devaluation of the peso in December.
Between January and March, the oldest bank in Brazil, founded in 1808, had a adjusted net profit of R$9.3 billiona drop of 1.5% on a quarterly basis (R$9.4 billion in the fourth quarter), but an increase of 8.8% on an annual basis (R$8.5 billion in the first quarter of 2023).
O guidance (projection) announced by the bank is an adjusted net profit of between R$37 billion and R$40 billion in 2024.
On the day’s agenda, initial unemployment insurance claims in the United States rose last week to the highest level since August, in line with signs of a slowdown in the American labor market.
Claims increased by 22,000 to 231,000 in the week ending May 4, according to Labor Department data released this morning. The median forecast in a survey of Bloomberg with economists pointed to 212,000 requests.
— With information from Bloomberg News
